Israeli Elections 2013 – Let's Talk Politics

Home Coffeeroom Politics Israeli Elections 2013 – Let's Talk Politics

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  • #607853

    achosid
    Participant

    Open blog baby.

    Let’s hash this one out together.

    I say Shas gets 13 seats.

    Amnon Yitzchok gets a big fat ZERO. (despite that he said we will all laugh on election night….as he says he will get “double digits….http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/article.php?p=149879“)

    Amsalem gets an even fatter ZERO.

    Bibi thinks he’s gonna take a huge win, but the center-left is going to come close, and take more seats than he thinks.

    This will be good for the Frum parties.

  • #927923

    YW Moderator-007
    Moderator

    Bibi will do anything to stay in power. That is why he partnered up with Lieberman of Beiteinu. In reality, he hates his guts. The day after the elections, he will can him. Just as he has done to countless others in the past.

  • #927924

    shmoel
    Member

    Likud/Lieberman will get less seats than they have now. They will be more reliant on the minor parties. The question is if Bibi will stick with Shas/UTJ or will pick Lapid/Livni.

    It’s not possible to know in advance if the frum will be hurt or gain.

    Agreed that Mr. Amsallem will get a zero. Rav Yitzchok will obviously get none.

  • #927925

    yekke2
    Participant

    Are there any Frum parties besides for UTJ and Shas?

    And which party are the Gedolim backing?

  • #927926

    Some gedolim are opposed to anyone voting and some gedolim say to vote gimmel.

  • #927927

    ItcheSrulik
    Member

    Aleh Yarok

  • #927928

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    One of the Charedi parties (Gimmel) has put out an ad banning Euclidian Geometru saying thats its terrible for Yeshiva boys to learn Euclidian Geometry instead of Mishnah.

    Considering that one of the Students of the Vilna Gaon put out a sefer on Euclidian Geometry, During his lifetime (The Vilna Gaon’s Lifetime)

  • #927929

    I would vote Amsalem, probably. He represents my opinions best. I do not agree with everything he says (such as the giur issues), but overall I think he’s OK. At least he has real opinions on things, and he looks ahead towards the future.

  • #927930

    Yenta
    Participant

    “{One of the Charedi parties (Gimmel) has put out an ad banning Euclidian Geometru saying thats its terrible for Yeshiva boys to learn Euclidian Geometry instead of Mishnah”

    Did you see the ad?

    No you didn’t. You read this on a self-hating formerly Jewish blog.

    This ad never existed.

    The Chazon Ish was a world -famous mathematician.

    It’s high-time you take your hate out of here, and stop feeding us the drek you read elsewhere, all unverified by yourself.

    You have been proven wrong so many times in the CR, it’s almost pathetic.

  • #927931

    UTJ if loyalty to my Rabbonim was my strongest motivation to vote. But if the Rabbonim seem split on whom to vote for, probably Shas or Mafdal. Mafdal is at least religious and not likely to agree to dismantling settlements. I’m not Sephardic, (or “edut Mizrach” 🙂 ) but Shas seems to be the most powerful option and most likely to improve the socioeconomic issues.

  • #927932

    I think I meant Habayit Hayehudi rather than Mafdal, which no longer exists.

  • #927933

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    I have a friend in israel who told me about the math Ban ad by Gimmel and I did not belive it.

    He then e-mailed me a fasimile of the ad and then snail-mailed me the actual flyer. I have the actual flyer in my possession and no it isnt a failed fantasy. I saw the blog entry after I got the flyer and its 100% true.

  • #927934

    Predictions?

    I think that UTJ will go down a seat

    Shas will go up a seat

    Bayit Yehudi will get 13 seats

    The leftist parties will get just enough to scrape together a coalition with Netanyahu.

    (I love making negative predictions, so if they come true at least I’m right, if not then I’m happy with the results.)

  • #927935

    sushee
    Member

    UTJ go down? They currently have 5 and the polls say they’ll get 6.

  • #927936

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    I am hope that Otzma Be-Yisroel and Bayit Yehuidi will do very well.

    Hopefully 3-4 seas for Otzma and 16-17 for Bayit Yehudi

  • #927937

    Center – right coalition with Likud, Yesh Atid, Hatenuah (as an outside chance, Labor) & Shas. No negotiations, Sephardim get some support but not Ashkinazi Yeshivos, and the money saved going towards social programs. Grand compromise between Bibi & Rav Yosef regarding drafting Charaidim/Arabs (probably some sort of Sherut Leumi, which allows for opting out at the cost of citizenship (not legal residency)), which the Ashkinazim label “selling out”.

    Adding UTJ to a coalition (unfortunately) would be bad politics for any party.

  • #927938

    Shas and UTJ have an agreement where one will not join a coalition without the other.

  • #927939

    old man
    Member

    I apologize if I am offending anyone, but the ban on geometry is a hoax designed to portray the chareidim as obscurantists. The fact that some take it seriously is indicative that the hoaxsters have a valid point.

  • #927940

    Shas and UTJ have an agreement where one will not join a coalition without the other.

    News to me. Source?

  • #927941

    Ferd
    Participant
  • #927942

    Good to know. Thanks.

  • #927943

    ThePurpleOne
    Member

    whoa im confused!! whys this talking abt seats? sorry if i sound stupid but im from good ole america!!

  • #927944

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    The elections in Israel are different than american. Israel is a Parlimentary proportional representation

    In the us congress is divided into districts and you vote for individual house members

    In Israel you vote for a party and the perctage of the vote that party gets is how many seats

    There are 120 seats in the Kenesset, so if Likud get 33% of the vote they get 40 seats. There is a cutoff of about 3%, if you get less , you get none.

    UTJ getting 6 seats means they got 5% of the vote

  • #927945

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    No party every got 50% of the vote, The highest ever was about 36% Mapai (Ben Gurions Party predcessor to modern day Labor)

  • #927946

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    Correction the highest anyone ever got was in 1969 when Golda Meir’s Alignment party (Labor) got 46% of the vote and 56 seats

  • #927947

    Health
    Participant

    It’s Ossur to vote in Israeli elections! Period. End of story.

  • #927948

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    It’s Ossur to vote in Israeli elections! Period. End of story.

    Rav Kanivesky says to vote for Gimmel

    http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/General+News/153409/Hagon-HaRav-Chaim-Kanievsky%3A-Everyone-to-Vote-Gimmel.html

  • #927949

    Ferd
    Participant

    Ossur according to one posek, the Satmar Rov…..and “Health”.

    A chiyuv by the Chazon Ish, Tchebiner Rov, Steipler, Rav Shach, Rav Elyashiv, Rav Shlomo Zalman Auerbach, Vishnitz Rebbe….

    Rav Chaim Kanievsky, Chacham Ovadia Yosef, Rav Shteinman, Rav Nissim Karelitz, Gerrer Rebbe, Belzer Rebbe….and the list goes on and on and on….

    So please, let’s be honest.

  • #927950

    Health
    Participant

    Ferd -“Ossur according to one posek, the Satmar Rov…..and “Health”.”

    Just because you’re drunk (Shikur Ferd) doesn’t mean you can lie!

    Only one?!?! Let’s see. The original Satmar Rebbe zt’l. The next one zt’l. And the two nowadays. All the Poiskim in Satmar communities.

    The Brisker Rov zt’l and all his children – most of them Gedolim.

    All the Rabbonim from the Eidah Charedis, from previous generations and now.

    And the list goes on and on and on….

    So please, let’s be honest.

  • #927951

    Only one?!?! Let’s see. The original Satmar Rebbe zt’l. The next one zt’l. And the two nowadays. All the Poiskim in Satmar communities.

    The Brisker Rov zt’l and all his children – most of them Gedolim.

    This brings up a very good question. Should a Rov who holds their shitta because their father held that shitta be counted as a separate person, or only an extension of the father?

    The famous mishna in Ediyos (5.7 and I’m sure elsewhere) says:

    ???? ????? ??? ????, ???, ???? ?? ?????? ????? ?????? ????. ??? ??, ???, ??? ?? ???? ??. ??? ??, ??? ????? ??? ???????, ??? ???? ??? ???????; ??? ????? ???????, ??? ???? ???????. ??? ??? ???? ??? ?????, ???? ???????; ???? ????? ???? ?????, ?????? ????? ???????.

    None the less, the children stick to their guns. Does that make it a “shittah”?

  • #927952

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    Just because you’re drunk (Shikur Ferd) doesn’t mean you can lie!

    Only one?!?! Let’s see. The original Satmar Rebbe zt’l. The next one zt’l. And the two nowadays. All the Poiskim in Satmar communities.

    The Brisker Rov zt’l and all his children – most of them Gedolim.

    All the Rabbonim from the Eidah Charedis, from previous generations and now.

    I guess Rav Kanivesky isnt really a Charedi Rav

  • #927953

    truthsharer
    Member

    My opinion is that UTJ and Shas will both lose seats. Many people are disenfranchised with UTJ, especially after comments made by UTJ ministers made it clear that “regular” charedim are not UTJ’s issue. They will most likely go to Bayit Hayehudi, now that BH actually has a fighting chance of being a strong party.

  • #927954

    Health
    Participant

    GAW – This Shaila is Not Nogieah here because on the other side many just follow their father also, like R’ Chaim -the Steipler’s son. Also, there is enough on either side that aren’t related.

  • #927955

    sushee
    Member

    UTJ currently has 5 and the polls say they’ll get 6. So it is rather highly unlikely they’ll go down to 4.

  • #927956

    Health
    Participant

    ZD -“I guess Rav Kanivesky isnt really a Charedi Rav”

    You make the most outlandish false comments and try to attribute them to others!

  • #927959

    truthsharer
    Member

    Whether UTJ stays at 6 or goes up 1 or down 1, the next Knesset will most likely have more religious representation than ever before. Many frum Jews who voted Likud or even YB are now finding that a vote for BH is not a wasted vote. I doubt the newer parties, Amnon Yitzchak’s, Am Shalem or NaNach will go over the threshold.

  • #927960

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    So how do you reconcile that Rav Kanivesky said one should vote in THIS election.

  • #927961

    Sushee – Correct, I’m interested if the increase in population percentage will offset the issues within UTJ.

  • #927962

    sushee
    Member

    613: What issues within UTJ? The Netzach faction reintegrated into UTJ and they will be voting UTJ as well. Only Shas has split-offs from Rav Yitzchok and Mr. Amsallem. (Both who will take votes from Shas and waste them as neither will get any seats.)

  • #927963

    akuperma
    Participant

    What matters is whether the parties that support learning Torah and exempting yeshiva students, that is to say United Torah Judaism, Shas, and Bayit Yehudi (i.e. the parties who consider learnign Torah something the state should support) either are strong enough to form a government (highly unlikely, though they will have over 30 seats, which is their best performance in history) OR (as is more likely) to convince the secular elites not to go through with their plan to ban 18-21 year olds from learning Torah – convincing as part of the coalition process. Since most of the secular parties are more concerned about matters such as economics and national security, they’ll probably cut a deal to allow Torah in return for getting a free hand in other areas – as has been the case since 1949.

    In the 1950s and 1960, the hareidim and religious zionists consistently got about 14 seats. Now they are getting over 30. While they disagree on many issues (Bayit Yehudi is as least as interested in national security as it is yiddishkeit, and Shas is almost as concerned with social and economic issues as with yiddishkeit), they are approaching the point where Israel will have three equal blocks (Nationalist, Left/Socialist, Religious) and it is not inconceivable that if the religious parties get together, they might someday be in a position to form a government.

  • #927964

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    Since it seems that UTJ rarely if ever gets more than 6 seats even with the increasing Charedi population, I strongly suspect that many charedim will vote for Likud, HaBayit Hayudi or Otzma. At 6 seats they would be 5% of the voting population which I dont think they are, I belive the number to be higher

  • #927965

    That’s because a lot of Chareidim (Eidah, Brisk, Satmar, etc.) , b’shitta, hold it is assur to vote and therefore don’t vote.

    And even though Chareidim are an increasing percentage of Israeli Jews, considering the influx of Russian goyim (some of whom go through a fake conversion but most of whom don’t even do that much) voting for parties like Lieberman’s Betanyahu (now merged with Likud), it dilutes the true Jews vote.

  • #927966

    I think Amsallem does have a chance of getting in.

    Sushee, many people feel that UTJ does not represent that “average” chareidi.

    As akuperma and truthsharer pointed out, this is the first election where the religious are starting to become a real political force, instead of just a kingmaker when the balance of power between left and right becomes to delicate.

    I disagree with truthsharer that Shas will lose seats. I think Deri is likable enough to make up for a lot of faults in Shas.

  • #927967

    Health
    Participant

    zahavasdad -“So how do you reconcile that Rav Kanivesky said one should vote in THIS election.”

    I wouldn’t even answer you because you’re a Mechutziv; but being not e/o who reads YWN knows Torah, I will. Your posts are like from s/o who became Frum yesterday.

    To e/o else – We have real arguments about things in Judaism from real Gedolim and Hashem considers them both as right. Elu V’elu Divrey etc…

  • #927968

    147
    Participant

    So how do you reconcile that Rav Kanivesky said one should vote in THIS election

    That this is an absolute Pesack & requirement, and no-one including these 2 estranged brothers, has any right whatsoever to overrule this correct Pesack.

  • #927969

    Health
    Participant

    147 -“That this is an absolute Pesack & requirement, and no-one including these 2 estranged brothers, has any right whatsoever to overrule this correct Pesack.”

    This has nothing to do with Satmar nowadays. Why don’t you read ALL my posts?

  • #927970

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    I am very well aware of Ellu V Ellu

    However you said it was Assur to vote according to all Gedolim.

    If you had said my rebbe forbids it, that is another issue

  • #927971

    DaasYochid
    Participant

    Zahavasdad:

    He then e-mailed me a fasimile of the ad and then snail-mailed me the actual flyer.

    Can i have youtr addresses please? I’d like to mail you a copy of my deed to the Brooklyn Bridge, it would certainly convince you.

    I guess Rav Kanivesky isnt really a Charedi Rav

    and,

    So how do you reconcile that Rav Kanivesky said one should vote in THIS election.

    You obviously don’t know what the Eidah Chareidis is. (R’ Chaim is not a member.) You really shouldn’t be commenting on charedim when you are so ill informed.

  • #927972

    DaasYochid
    Participant

    GAW,

    Interesting point, but notice that he was told to be chozer, the Divrei Yoel and Beirach Moshe left no such instructions. And as Health correctly points out (and this is a better argument), this is not a da’as yochid.

    Read some of the Steipler’s letters defending the Neturei Karta (of his day, no connection to some wacko reshaim who currently use that name). Even gedolim who hold of voting appreciate the valid kanous of the anti-voting shitah.

  • #927973

    DY: I’m not saying they shoudl be Chozer (after all, the whole Chassidus is Minhag, and they HAVE to follow what was done, or destroy their entire reason for existing), I’m just saying that it doesn’t count as a separate shitta, since they only follow what Satmar Rov did, but did not come to that conclusion themselves.

  • #927974

    sushee
    Member

    DaasYochid: What did those guys calling themselves NK today (who actually have no right to the name) do that you refer to them as reshoim? I agree with your wacko description, but the other term requires specific defined activities.

  • #927975

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    DaasYochid: What did those guys calling themselves NK today (who actually have no right to the name) do that you refer to them as reshoim? I agree with your wacko description, but the other term requires specific defined activities.

    Does going to Iran and meet with Ahmadinejad count?

  • #927976

    Yenta
    Participant
  • #927977

    sushee
    Member

    zsdad: No. Meeting a rasha doesn’t make one a rasha.

  • #927978

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    How about meeting MANY Rashas in Iran at a Holocaust Denial conference

  • #927979

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    Lets not forget appearing ON SHABBOS On the DIAS (They did not speak) at a Pro-Palestian Rally In Washington DC

  • #927980

    achosid
    Participant

    zahavasdad – when oh when will you stop lying constantly?

    Everyone knows that a fringe group of 15 people have been to Iran. they have no support from any Satmar Rebbe, or Eida Chareidis. Letters condemning their actions were published on this website.

    Keep up the lying and outright fabrications….and then quickly scurry away into the darkness.

  • #927981

    sushee
    Member

    As I said, meeting them doesn’t make one. Chillul Shabbos is another story, but it doesn’t sound like they did that from what you said. (Certainly not most). DY?

  • #927982

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    The Rally occured on April 22, 2002, that was attended.

    No matter what the cause, its definatly Chilul Shabbos to appear at a rally of some sort (Minimum Ovda D’Chol). They just didnt march, they appeared on the Dais.

  • #927983

    DaasYochid
    Participant

    GAW,

    Every shittah in this debate probably can be traced to a single source.

    Certainly, anti-zionism is central to Satmar, but it’s far from their sole reason to exist. It’s a part of their vision (or version, for the cynics) of pure, unadulterated Yiddishkeit, but not the only part.

  • #927984

    DaasYochid
    Participant

    Does going to Iran and meet with Ahmadinejad count?

    How about meeting MANY Rashas in Iran at a Holocaust Denial conference

    Yes (they didn’t merely meet, they showed support).*

    Lets not forget appearing ON SHABBOS On the DIAS (They did not speak) at a Pro-Palestian Rally In Washington DC

    I don’t know about that.

    zahavasdad – when oh when will you stop lying constantly?

    Everyone knows that a fringe group of 15 people have been to Iran. they have no support from any Satmar Rebbe, or Eida Chareidis. Letters condemning their actions were published on this website.

    Keep up the lying and outright fabrications….and then quickly scurry away into the darkness.

    He didn’t say it was Satmar or Eidah. I brought up NK paranthetically, and that is what his response was about. Save your attacks for where they are warranted.

    DY?

    see * above

  • #927985

    sushee
    Member

    DY: That makes one a halachic rasha?

  • #927986

    Every shittah in this debate probably can be traced to a single source.

    Certainly, anti-zionism is central to Satmar, but it’s far from their sole reason to exist. It’s a part of their vision (or version, for the cynics) of pure, unadulterated Yiddishkeit, but not the only part.

    DY: I don’t think you understood my point. Chassidish Rebbes are much more likely to follow the shitta of the previous Rebbe because of who he was (and his status of Rebbe flowing from his predecessor). This is opposed to a Litvish Rov (e.g. Rav Chaim Shlita), whose status is not dependent on who his Father or FIL were (even though they were Gedolim). Therefore someone like Rav Chaim has the latitude to disagree with those before him, while a Chassidish Rebbe has much less room to disagree.

  • #927988

    DaasYochid
    Participant

    ???? ?’ ?”?

  • #927989

    sushee
    Member

    How does picking up a hand to hit someone relate to them?

  • #927990

    GAW: Can you bring even an example of Rav Chaim disagreeing with the Steipler or of Rav Shmuel Auerbach disagreeing with Rav Shlomo Zalman — especially on a large notable issue?

  • #927991

    GAW: Can you bring even an example of Rav Chaim disagreeing with the Steipler or of Rav Shmuel Auerbach disagreeing with Rav Shlomo Zalman — especially on a large notable issue?

    I am not knowledgable regarding the Israeli Gedolim and their shittos, but was just using Rav Chaim as an example. Perhaps you could help me out here.

    Edit, thought of one possible. What does Rav Shmuel Aurbach hold regarding Hetter Mechira?

  • #927992

    DaasYochid
    Participant

    GAW,

    No, I do understand your overall point, but I would hardly count R’ Chaim’s shitah as his own, and the Steiper’s was really the Chazon Ish’s. In E.Y., the shitah of the gedolim won’t change, (but the application might change because of circumstances).

    Where there is some divergence in the Yeshivish’e shitah is between the Briskers and everyone else. Rav Schach, who was very close with the Rov, supported elections (obviously), while the Briskers kept away.

  • #927993

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    GAW: Can you bring even an example of Rav Chaim disagreeing with the Steipler or of Rav Shmuel Auerbach disagreeing with Rav Shlomo Zalman — especially on a large notable issue?

    Rav Moshe Feinstein assured Heart transplants, I have heard that Rav Tendler has permitted it because they are now safer than Rav Moshe assured them (He held that the doctor who removed the heart from the patient halachically killed them)

  • #927994

    DaasYochid
    Participant

    ZD,

    There were two reasons for R’ Moshe’s psak.

    1) Killing the recipient. This has likely changed.

    2) Killing the donor. This has likely not changed.

    Rav Moshe’s opinion is best represented by his son R’ Dovid.

  • #927995

    Rabbi Tendler is no raya. Besides not being a son, he differs from Rav Moshe frequently.

  • #927996

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    DY

    I was talking about the recipient. I dont know Rav Dovid’s opinion on the matter , only Rav Tendler.

    A Son-in-Law can follow a father in Law, Rav Menachem Scheerson was the Son-In-Law of Rav Yitzchok Schnnerson

    And The Steipler followed his Brother-in-Law the Chazon Ish. So it is possible for Shvers to follow.

  • #927997

    DaasYochid
    Participant

    ZD,

    Of course it’s possible, but there are many (myself included), who feel that in this case, he doesn’t, even though he often claims to.

  • #927998

    Health
    Participant

    ZD -“I am very well aware of Ellu V Ellu

    However you said it was Assur to vote according to all Gedolim.

    If you had said my rebbe forbids it, that is another issue”

    Funny you must be dyslexic, at least when it comes to reading Charedims’ posts. This is what I posted:

    “It’s Ossur to vote in Israeli elections! Period. End of story.”

    Nowhere does it say “all Gedolim”. It doesn’t even mention anyone; so the most you can assume is that this is my opinion. Instead of asking me what my opinion is based on -you make outlandish comments about R’ Chaim Shlita. And btw, you don’t have to ask me what my opinion is based on now, because I already listed those Gedolim on page 1.

  • #927999

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    Polls are coming in

    Prelimary results have Likud at 31 , Habayit Hayedi at 12 , UTJ at 6 , Yesh Atid at 19 , Labor at 17 ,Shas at 11 , Meretz at 7 Tzipi Livni at 7

  • #928000

    Y.W. Editor
    Keymaster

    “Coming in”?

    For an hour now…

    Channel 2

    Israel Channel 2 TV Exit Poll

    Channel 10

    Channel 10 TV Exit Poll

    Channel 1

    http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/article.php?p=153799

  • #928001

    golfer
    Participant

    Yes, Y. W. E., Thank you very much for keeping us informed!

    I, for one, noticed the quick coverage. And I’m most likely not the only one.

  • #928002

    uneeq
    Member

    Interesting: The OP was pretty spot on with every prediction of his.

  • #928003

    achosid
    Participant

    uneeq – Thanks for noticing that.

    I am always right.

    A Chosid.

  • #928004

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    No way to tell if results are good or bad for Charedi Parties

    Depends who Bibi Coalitions with

    He could go Likud-Habyit Hayudi-Shas-UTJ for about 61 seats , Shas wont got without UTJ

    Or he could go

    Likud-Habit Hayudi-Yesh Atid for about 62 seats

  • #928005

    achosid
    Participant

    zahavasdad – Once again you show your utter ignorance at the way the Charedi parties work.

    For starters, Shas will do anything to keep themselves in power. Forget UTJ….they could not care less about them.

    Since you are clueless, I will break it dwon for ya.

    Shall I?

    – A narrow, right-wing and Charedi coalition of 61 Knesset members comprised of Likud-Beitenu, 31 seats, Bayit Yehudi, 12, Shas 12, UTJ 6.

    – A broad coalition of 78 legislators that includes those from centrist parties that said during the election campaign they would be open to a political partnership with Netanyahu:

    Likud-Beitenu, 31 seats, Bayit Yehudi, 12, Shas, 12, UTJ, 6, Yesh Atid, 19.

    That majority could grow to 102 if the centre-left Labor Party, with a projected 17 seats and former foreign minister Tzipi Livni’s Hatnuah party, with 7, also opt to join a Netanyahu coalition.

  • #928006

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    Bibi is a polititian. Only the first 61 seats matter, those parties are in the strongest postion, everyone else gets scraps

    He will play Shas/UTJ vs Yesh Atid off each other who will make the most concessions and be amicable to the majority of Likud voters.

  • #928008

    sushee
    Member

    How about a complete shocker/earthquake coalition where Shas teams up with Lapid and Labor, putting Netanyahu into a retirement home!!

  • #928009

    I’m really disappointed in the results.

  • #928010

    benignuman
    Participant

    Yesh Atid joining the government can have terrible implications. Lapid, their leader, wants to end Orthodox control of marriage, divorce and conversion. If he succeeds, the number of mamzeirim in E”Y will skyrocket, chas v’shalom.

  • #928011

    Achosid copied and pasted his predictions from Reuters.

    OK, my predictions:

    Likud-Beiteinu 31

    Bayit Yehudi – 12

    Shas +UTJ 18

    Which already gives him a majority.

    In addition, he may go with:

    Yesh Atid – 19

    Labor – 17

    Hatnua – 10

    I think he’s going to go for the center-left coalition. If he does, he can afford to drop Bayit Yehudi, which will make Obama happy.

  • #928012

    sushee
    Member

    613: What disappoints you?

  • #928013

    Sushee: I was hoping for Bayit Yehudi to get 15, Otzma 2, Shas 13 and UTJ 8. So as to force Netanyahu into a right wing, Chareidi coalition.

  • #928014

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    He is not going to drop Bayit Hayudi. They are natural allies and are fairly close politically and ideolically.

    he cannot have Shas/UTJ and Yesh Aitd in a coalition, Yesh Atid #1 issue seems to be the draft.

    Nobody else can form a coalition as the #2 party is Yesh Atid, There isnt enough votes to get

  • #928015

    sushee
    Member

    UTJ never had 8 since ’48. That was an unrealistic hope.

  • #928016

    sushee
    Member

    zsd: On that token, Yesh Atid cannot be in a coalition with Bayit Yehudi, as they have opposite demands on the peace process with the Arabs.

    So if Shas + Yesh doesn’t either work, Bibi has no viable coalition.

  • #928017

    truthsharer
    Member

    I think Bibi might not be able to actually form a coalition and Yesh Atid will form one with the center/left.

  • #928018

    sushee
    Member

    Does anyone know how many votes Mr. Amsallem and Rav Yitzchok got and how many seats they caused Shas to lose?

  • #928019

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    According to the Jerusalem Post the first person Bibi called was Lapid.

    It depends what Yesh Atids #1 issue is going to be, Will it be the draft / Payments to Yeshivas or will it be the settlements.

    Which one are they willing to compromise on, that will decide if they join the government and who will be the other party

  • #928020

    achosid
    Participant

    torah613613torah – I know I know…I copied from Reuters. Not.

    Did I also copy my initial post from the 2 days ago, when I started this thread?

    In any event, the Charedim Boruch Hashem won BIG today!

    And take note people, did anyone see what kadima got? ZERO!

    That’s right. The animals who stopped the Tal law are history. Like Plesner (the non-Jew) and the rest of that bunch: http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/article.php?p=132892

  • #928021

    achosid
    Participant

    Mr. Amsalem and Mr. Yitzchok got nothing.

    oh they actually scored very big. Yes, big slots in gehenom for what they did to both Chacham Ovadia, Rav Shteinman, and Rav Kanievsky.

  • #928022

    Zahavasdad: the latest polls show Likud up to 33. So

    Likud 33

    Bayit Yehudi 12

    Shas/UTJ 18

    Is already a pretty safe coalition of 63 seats.

    Sushee, I’m wondering about that too. Amsallem got 1% and Rav Amnon Yitzchak got less than that.

  • #928023

    uneeq
    Member

    Sushee : You can view all the official results on the governments website –

    http://votes-19.gov.il/nationalresults

    nice please let link through

  • #928024

    sushee
    Member

    How many seats did they cause Shas to lose?

  • #928025

    Achoside: Well, part was from The Forward. I knew the phrase “narrow, right-wing coalition” resonated from somewhere. I’m not disturbed that it happened – just cite your sources!

    I agree with you that overall, it was a good result for the chareidim.

  • #928026

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    The cutoff point to get seats in the Knesset is 2% of the vote Kadima got it and will have 2-3 seats

  • #928027

    truthsharer
    Member

    Am Shalem cost Shas one vote. I didn’t check Amnon Yitzchak’s party.

  • #928028

    Zahavasdad: Yeah, it’s a pity. I wish Otzma had gotten in.

  • #928029

    147
    Participant

    Sushee: I was hoping for Bayit Yehudi to get 15, Otzma 2, Shas 13 and UTJ 8. So as to force Netanyahu into a right wing, Chareidi coalition.

    This would have happened if Satmar had not derailed nor sabotaged the elections.

    Because of satmar’s unconscionable actions, I hereby am pledging to increase my Zionism:- Reshis Tzemichas Ge’uloseinu, by increasing my observance of Yom ha’Atzmaut & Yom Yerusholayim, by praying more fervently each Shabbos morning during the MisheBeirach for Medinat Yisroel Reshis Tzemichas Ge’uloseinu, and I shall be spending more money at the forthcoming YU Seforim Sale, and I have taken the unexpected decision to make a previously unplanned trip to Israel for Purim, to help boost the Israeli economy & patronize El Al.

    However, to the credit of Satmar, I must confess 1 item which I gladly share in common with them:- We are both not members of Agudath Israel of America, due to irreconcilable differences with their Shita.

  • #928030

    147: LOL! If you pay for my ticket, I’ll go to Israel too!

  • #928031

    Health
    Participant

    147 – “Because of satmar’s unconscionable actions, I hereby am pledging to increase my Zionism:”

    Since when does a Farbissene Tzioni like you need an excuse? I thought you held these things were a Mitzva?

  • #928032

    More of the typical malaise and indecision – and hopefully an exodus, particularly of chilonim, as the left and the leftist American administration embolden the Arabs to make life in EY miserable and the medine come to its well-deserved end.

    Hashem Hu Malkenu.

  • #928034

    mdd
    Member

    Yea, Achosid(Joe), the Chareidim won big — with the anti-Chareidi party coming in second with 19 seats! Indeed!

  • #928035

    Chaim Amsellem, received 43,095 votes (1.2%)

    Otzma Leyisrael received 61,825 votes (representing 1.73%)

    None got it. Wasted votes.

  • #928036

    When I saw the results across the board, with names included, I came to the conclusion that the medine needs to be under adult supervision.

  • #928037

    Am Shavur (or Am Shilem) could have joined his friend Lipman and run on Lapid’s sinas chinam list. It does not look like Amnon Itzhak did too much damage to anyone.

    As for the medine, EY is too important to leave in the hands of the Israelis. Torah Jews the world over should join with real bnei Torah in EY and negotiate with Arabs in private, so we are guaranteed a small, autonomous Torah yishuv and rights to daven in the mekoimois hakedoishim when the medine falls.

  • #928038

    We know that Lapid will be in the coalition now.

  • #928040

    There are only 60 MK’s between Likud and the rigjt-wing/Chareidi parties. So it isn’t enough for a coalition, since he needs at least 61. Bibi NEEDS a leftist party like Lapid.

  • #928041

    mdd
    Member

    The Bear, Bnei Torah in E.Y. can not stay in learning without the “Medine”. Who’ll pay their bills?

  • #928042

    Am Shavur (or Am Shilem) could have joined his friend Lipman and run on Lapid’s sinas chinam list.

    Bear, I’m actually surprised that you believe as such. Yesh Atid is very much of the Satmar Shitta of not giving money to Avrachim from the Zionist entity. I would have thought that even though they are all Shreklache Zionists, you would think Yesh Atid was the best of the bad.

  • #928043

    Ein Atid aims to destroy kedushas ha’aretz and entrap Jews who are truly tinokois shenishbeu into severe averois through civil marriage etc.

    There are many yeshivos that operate without the help of the medine. The difference for such yeshivos would be a decline in their monthly electric bills when they switch to an Arab supplier.

    In any event, it is only the ridiculous system in EY that keeps avrechim who want to leave kollel from entering the work force. The medine does NOT want charedim in the work force, polluting the tzioinish enterprise and spearheading a wave of tshuva. They want them in the army to shmad them out – if they agreed to national service, it would truly be the end of the medine as they knew it and wanted it. The status quo is great for the medine too, as charedim are held in contempt for refusal to work when it is the tzioinish system that keeps them down.

    The medine cannot win a fight against Arabs, especially with Sugar Daddy America moving away from its side. Therefore, it fights Jews, in the way of the misyovnim and baryoinim of old whose skewed traditions it upholds.

    Gam ze yaavor.

  • #928044

    zahavasdad
    Participant

    It seems that someone at Habyit Hayudi also called for the draft of Charedim and Many Yesh Atid voters were secular right wingers whom Lapid wants to honor and not negotiate so much. he is not pro-arab.

    Lapid does not want to be with the leftists, he wants to be with Bibi.

  • #928045

    Lapid is not pro-Arab, but he is anti-Judaism, which makes him anti-Jewish. HaBayit Eino Yehudi is a secular party with a yarmulke. If it really advocated a bayit yehudi, it would not have won a single seat. As it is, its message is so mixed that I don’t understand why it isn’t down there with Kadima or below the threshold with the similarly murky Am Shilem.

    What is more, the moment there is alternative national service or a draft, Lapid’s whole raison d’etre is gone and he won’t ever see a Knesset seat again. He knows that, and he will therefore stay out just so he claims he is fighting for what he supposedly believes in. This way, he can delude himself into thinking he will get more seats next time.

    Finally, the medine knows that the moment charedim enter the workforce, it is the end of the ugly Charedi stereotype that the ruling clique wants to enforce. It will be the beginning of a wave of tshuva, and a guarantee that if the medine still exists as anything other than a binational state along the lines of Lebanon or Rwanda it will have a frum majority in 20-50 years.

  • #928047

    147
    Participant

    Well, as already promised in this coffee room topic, I am as per my word & commitment, increasing my Zionism, in protest at this organization which abstained from voting at the Israeli elections.

    I have already made several purchases at the YU Seforim Sale.

    Then IY’H this coming week I am taking this unexpected trip to Israel, to boost the Israeli economy. Based on the weather forecast, this snow storm should be history by the time my Aeroplane IY’H takes off. HaShem has been very good to me & my spouse, and we have a lot to be grateful for, that as Adar commences we shall IY’H experience true Simcha going to Eretz Yisroel [without a snow storm on the day of our trip], praying at the Kossel, and augmenting the Israeli economy. All of this on the coattails of this Rabbi who pressed so hard to dissuade voters in Israel, which truly repulsed me.

    We eagerly look forward to purchasing & distributing Matonos l’Evyonim & Shelach Monos in Eretz Yisroel.

  • #928048

    besalel
    Participant

    147: shopping at the SOY seforim sale does not support Israel or Zionists. I kinda think its funny the whole concept of this American Zionist. The guy who thinks he is a zionist because he says mi shebeyrach on shabbis. What a joke. The Zionist who sits comfortably in his estate in Teaneck and pontificates that a true zionist is one who buys israeli bonds or shops at the SOY seforim sale. a joke. the maraglim also said, “look at these beautiful fruits” and “what a great country” until yehoshua said “ok lets go live there.” then their american zionism kicked in “no we cant live there but we’ll be zionists from the desert.” fools.

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