Open blog baby.
Let's hash this one out together.
I say Shas gets 13 seats.
Amnon Yitzchok gets a big fat ZERO. (despite that he said we will all laugh on election night....as he says he will get "double digits....http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/article.php?p=149879")
Amsalem gets an even fatter ZERO.
Bibi thinks he's gonna take a huge win, but the center-left is going to come close, and take more seats than he thinks.
This will be good for the Frum parties.
Bibi will do anything to stay in power. That is why he partnered up with Lieberman of Beiteinu. In reality, he hates his guts. The day after the elections, he will can him. Just as he has done to countless others in the past.
Likud/Lieberman will get less seats than they have now. They will be more reliant on the minor parties. The question is if Bibi will stick with Shas/UTJ or will pick Lapid/Livni.
It's not possible to know in advance if the frum will be hurt or gain.
Agreed that Mr. Amsallem will get a zero. Rav Yitzchok will obviously get none.
Are there any Frum parties besides for UTJ and Shas?
And which party are the Gedolim backing?
Some gedolim are opposed to anyone voting and some gedolim say to vote gimmel.
Aleh Yarok
One of the Charedi parties (Gimmel) has put out an ad banning Euclidian Geometru saying thats its terrible for Yeshiva boys to learn Euclidian Geometry instead of Mishnah.
Considering that one of the Students of the Vilna Gaon put out a sefer on Euclidian Geometry, During his lifetime (The Vilna Gaon's Lifetime)
I would vote Amsalem, probably. He represents my opinions best. I do not agree with everything he says (such as the giur issues), but overall I think he's OK. At least he has real opinions on things, and he looks ahead towards the future.
"{One of the Charedi parties (Gimmel) has put out an ad banning Euclidian Geometru saying thats its terrible for Yeshiva boys to learn Euclidian Geometry instead of Mishnah"
Did you see the ad?
No you didn't. You read this on a self-hating formerly Jewish blog.
This ad never existed.
The Chazon Ish was a world -famous mathematician.
It's high-time you take your hate out of here, and stop feeding us the drek you read elsewhere, all unverified by yourself.
You have been proven wrong so many times in the CR, it's almost pathetic.
UTJ if loyalty to my Rabbonim was my strongest motivation to vote. But if the Rabbonim seem split on whom to vote for, probably Shas or Mafdal. Mafdal is at least religious and not likely to agree to dismantling settlements. I'm not Sephardic, (or "edut Mizrach" :) ) but Shas seems to be the most powerful option and most likely to improve the socioeconomic issues.
I think I meant Habayit Hayehudi rather than Mafdal, which no longer exists.
I have a friend in israel who told me about the math Ban ad by Gimmel and I did not belive it.
He then e-mailed me a fasimile of the ad and then snail-mailed me the actual flyer. I have the actual flyer in my possession and no it isnt a failed fantasy. I saw the blog entry after I got the flyer and its 100% true.
Predictions?
I think that UTJ will go down a seat
Shas will go up a seat
Bayit Yehudi will get 13 seats
The leftist parties will get just enough to scrape together a coalition with Netanyahu.
(I love making negative predictions, so if they come true at least I'm right, if not then I'm happy with the results.)
UTJ go down? They currently have 5 and the polls say they'll get 6.
I am hope that Otzma Be-Yisroel and Bayit Yehuidi will do very well.
Hopefully 3-4 seas for Otzma and 16-17 for Bayit Yehudi
Center - right coalition with Likud, Yesh Atid, Hatenuah (as an outside chance, Labor) & Shas. No negotiations, Sephardim get some support but not Ashkinazi Yeshivos, and the money saved going towards social programs. Grand compromise between Bibi & Rav Yosef regarding drafting Charaidim/Arabs (probably some sort of Sherut Leumi, which allows for opting out at the cost of citizenship (not legal residency)), which the Ashkinazim label "selling out".
Adding UTJ to a coalition (unfortunately) would be bad politics for any party.
Shas and UTJ have an agreement where one will not join a coalition without the other.
I apologize if I am offending anyone, but the ban on geometry is a hoax designed to portray the chareidim as obscurantists. The fact that some take it seriously is indicative that the hoaxsters have a valid point.
Shas and UTJ have an agreement where one will not join a coalition without the other.
News to me. Source?
Good to know. Thanks.
whoa im confused!! whys this talking abt seats? sorry if i sound stupid but im from good ole america!!
The elections in Israel are different than american. Israel is a Parlimentary proportional representation
In the us congress is divided into districts and you vote for individual house members
In Israel you vote for a party and the perctage of the vote that party gets is how many seats
There are 120 seats in the Kenesset, so if Likud get 33% of the vote they get 40 seats. There is a cutoff of about 3%, if you get less , you get none.
UTJ getting 6 seats means they got 5% of the vote
No party every got 50% of the vote, The highest ever was about 36% Mapai (Ben Gurions Party predcessor to modern day Labor)
Correction the highest anyone ever got was in 1969 when Golda Meir's Alignment party (Labor) got 46% of the vote and 56 seats
It's Ossur to vote in Israeli elections! Period. End of story.
It's Ossur to vote in Israeli elections! Period. End of story.
Rav Kanivesky says to vote for Gimmel
Ossur according to one posek, the Satmar Rov.....and "Health".
A chiyuv by the Chazon Ish, Tchebiner Rov, Steipler, Rav Shach, Rav Elyashiv, Rav Shlomo Zalman Auerbach, Vishnitz Rebbe....
Rav Chaim Kanievsky, Chacham Ovadia Yosef, Rav Shteinman, Rav Nissim Karelitz, Gerrer Rebbe, Belzer Rebbe....and the list goes on and on and on....
So please, let's be honest.
Ferd -"Ossur according to one posek, the Satmar Rov.....and "Health"."
Just because you're drunk (Shikur Ferd) doesn't mean you can lie!
Only one?!?! Let's see. The original Satmar Rebbe zt'l. The next one zt'l. And the two nowadays. All the Poiskim in Satmar communities.
The Brisker Rov zt'l and all his children - most of them Gedolim.
All the Rabbonim from the Eidah Charedis, from previous generations and now.
And the list goes on and on and on....
So please, let's be honest.
Only one?!?! Let's see. The original Satmar Rebbe zt'l. The next one zt'l. And the two nowadays. All the Poiskim in Satmar communities.
The Brisker Rov zt'l and all his children - most of them Gedolim.
This brings up a very good question. Should a Rov who holds their shitta because their father held that shitta be counted as a separate person, or only an extension of the father?
The famous mishna in Ediyos (5.7 and I'm sure elsewhere) says:
בשעת מיתתו אמר לבנו, בני, חזור בך בארבעה דברים שהייתי אומר. אמר לו, אתה, למה לא חזרת בך. אמר לו, אני שמעתי מפי המרובין, והם שמעו מפי המרובין; אני עמדתי בשמועתי, והן עמדו בשמועתן. אבל אתה שמעת מפי היחיד, ומפי המרובין; מוטב להניח דברי היחיד, ולאחוז בדברי המרובין.
None the less, the children stick to their guns. Does that make it a "shittah"?
Just because you're drunk (Shikur Ferd) doesn't mean you can lie!
Only one?!?! Let's see. The original Satmar Rebbe zt'l. The next one zt'l. And the two nowadays. All the Poiskim in Satmar communities.
The Brisker Rov zt'l and all his children - most of them Gedolim.
All the Rabbonim from the Eidah Charedis, from previous generations and now.
I guess Rav Kanivesky isnt really a Charedi Rav
My opinion is that UTJ and Shas will both lose seats. Many people are disenfranchised with UTJ, especially after comments made by UTJ ministers made it clear that "regular" charedim are not UTJ's issue. They will most likely go to Bayit Hayehudi, now that BH actually has a fighting chance of being a strong party.
GAW - This Shaila is Not Nogieah here because on the other side many just follow their father also, like R' Chaim -the Steipler's son. Also, there is enough on either side that aren't related.
UTJ currently has 5 and the polls say they'll get 6. So it is rather highly unlikely they'll go down to 4.
ZD -"I guess Rav Kanivesky isnt really a Charedi Rav"
You make the most outlandish false comments and try to attribute them to others!
Whether UTJ stays at 6 or goes up 1 or down 1, the next Knesset will most likely have more religious representation than ever before. Many frum Jews who voted Likud or even YB are now finding that a vote for BH is not a wasted vote. I doubt the newer parties, Amnon Yitzchak's, Am Shalem or NaNach will go over the threshold.
So how do you reconcile that Rav Kanivesky said one should vote in THIS election.
Sushee - Correct, I'm interested if the increase in population percentage will offset the issues within UTJ.
613: What issues within UTJ? The Netzach faction reintegrated into UTJ and they will be voting UTJ as well. Only Shas has split-offs from Rav Yitzchok and Mr. Amsallem. (Both who will take votes from Shas and waste them as neither will get any seats.)
What matters is whether the parties that support learning Torah and exempting yeshiva students, that is to say United Torah Judaism, Shas, and Bayit Yehudi (i.e. the parties who consider learnign Torah something the state should support) either are strong enough to form a government (highly unlikely, though they will have over 30 seats, which is their best performance in history) OR (as is more likely) to convince the secular elites not to go through with their plan to ban 18-21 year olds from learning Torah - convincing as part of the coalition process. Since most of the secular parties are more concerned about matters such as economics and national security, they'll probably cut a deal to allow Torah in return for getting a free hand in other areas - as has been the case since 1949.
In the 1950s and 1960, the hareidim and religious zionists consistently got about 14 seats. Now they are getting over 30. While they disagree on many issues (Bayit Yehudi is as least as interested in national security as it is yiddishkeit, and Shas is almost as concerned with social and economic issues as with yiddishkeit), they are approaching the point where Israel will have three equal blocks (Nationalist, Left/Socialist, Religious) and it is not inconceivable that if the religious parties get together, they might someday be in a position to form a government.
Since it seems that UTJ rarely if ever gets more than 6 seats even with the increasing Charedi population, I strongly suspect that many charedim will vote for Likud, HaBayit Hayudi or Otzma. At 6 seats they would be 5% of the voting population which I dont think they are, I belive the number to be higher
That's because a lot of Chareidim (Eidah, Brisk, Satmar, etc.) , b'shitta, hold it is assur to vote and therefore don't vote.
And even though Chareidim are an increasing percentage of Israeli Jews, considering the influx of Russian goyim (some of whom go through a fake conversion but most of whom don't even do that much) voting for parties like Lieberman's Betanyahu (now merged with Likud), it dilutes the true Jews vote.
I think Amsallem does have a chance of getting in.
Sushee, many people feel that UTJ does not represent that "average" chareidi.
As akuperma and truthsharer pointed out, this is the first election where the religious are starting to become a real political force, instead of just a kingmaker when the balance of power between left and right becomes to delicate.
I disagree with truthsharer that Shas will lose seats. I think Deri is likable enough to make up for a lot of faults in Shas.
zahavasdad -"So how do you reconcile that Rav Kanivesky said one should vote in THIS election."
I wouldn't even answer you because you're a Mechutziv; but being not e/o who reads YWN knows Torah, I will. Your posts are like from s/o who became Frum yesterday.
To e/o else - We have real arguments about things in Judaism from real Gedolim and Hashem considers them both as right. Elu V'elu Divrey etc...
So how do you reconcile that Rav Kanivesky said one should vote in THIS election
That this is an absolute Pesack & requirement, and no-one including these 2 estranged brothers, has any right whatsoever to overrule this correct Pesack.
147 -"That this is an absolute Pesack & requirement, and no-one including these 2 estranged brothers, has any right whatsoever to overrule this correct Pesack."
This has nothing to do with Satmar nowadays. Why don't you read ALL my posts?
I am very well aware of Ellu V Ellu
However you said it was Assur to vote according to all Gedolim.
If you had said my rebbe forbids it, that is another issue
Zahavasdad:
He then e-mailed me a fasimile of the ad and then snail-mailed me the actual flyer.
Can i have youtr addresses please? I'd like to mail you a copy of my deed to the Brooklyn Bridge, it would certainly convince you.
I guess Rav Kanivesky isnt really a Charedi Rav
and,
So how do you reconcile that Rav Kanivesky said one should vote in THIS election.
You obviously don't know what the Eidah Chareidis is. (R' Chaim is not a member.) You really shouldn't be commenting on charedim when you are so ill informed.
GAW,
Interesting point, but notice that he was told to be chozer, the Divrei Yoel and Beirach Moshe left no such instructions. And as Health correctly points out (and this is a better argument), this is not a da'as yochid.
Read some of the Steipler's letters defending the Neturei Karta (of his day, no connection to some wacko reshaim who currently use that name). Even gedolim who hold of voting appreciate the valid kanous of the anti-voting shitah.
DY: I'm not saying they shoudl be Chozer (after all, the whole Chassidus is Minhag, and they HAVE to follow what was done, or destroy their entire reason for existing), I'm just saying that it doesn't count as a separate shitta, since they only follow what Satmar Rov did, but did not come to that conclusion themselves.
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