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Patur Aval Assur
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“was that any help?”

Regardless of any specifics being said here, it is helpful just to be able to articulate my thoughts on the matter and have someone articulate thoughts back.

That being said, I think I disagree with your example from elephants and the application to our case. (This is all only about my second point above, forgetting my first point for the time being.) My point was that the fact that a belief is justified shouldn’t mean anything vis-a-vis knowledge unless the justification is 100% which can’t be because if it was 100% then it would be impossible to have a different outcome. So in our case, while Chaim is justified in believing that Yoely will win, it cannot be said that he KNOWS that Yoely will win. If he doesn’t KNOW that Yoely will win then a fortiori he doesn’t KNOW that the winner will have ten coins. Again, it could be this was actually Gettier’s point in which case we might be agreeing.