Based on how the Republicans did in the Congressional races, Trump should have one easily, instead of winning or losing by fractions of a percent in a single state. Insulting part of the audience might work for some entertainers, but not for politicians. The lesson will be learned that politicians should not let their mouth (and twittering fingers) run independent of their brains – a skill that most politicians and persons in “corporate life” learned, but that Trump (who never had to deal with an independent board of directors or stockholders or anyone else he had to answer to) never learned.
The people who plan to riot would riot if Trump or Biden win, so unless you believe they are angry Libertarians or Greens, the “violence” the media is rooting for (violence earns clicks) is not related to the election.