n0 > It’s a statistical model. And it’s been ironclad for almost two centuries.
It is a misconception. A model is built on old data. The more parameters (degrees of freedom) you have, the easier it is to fit to the data. As one Baki told me – you can always draw a straight line through any 3 points! (as long as your pen is thick enough). So, it is no wonder that someone constructs a model that works on all historical data. The real test would be to publish the model and see how it works in the future.
Same thing goes with stock market that most of us can not predict “shaa ahas” in advance, kal v’homer, 100 years. As financial advisor asked an economics professor – if you are so smart (explaining economics), why are you not so rich? [The retort was: if you are so rich, why are you not so smart].
Practically speaking – we saw how one month of covid dramatically reduced economic activity in the whole world (and price of oil went below zero) and then a month of war sent oil to the roof and fired up coal … so, when global warming will start really hurting the world, we can always reduce activity, seed clouds, paint the whole globe in reflective color, bomb Chinese coal factories … Solve today’s problems today and don’t try to feed Russian monsters in order to save your beaches tomorrow.