“I expect the naviim who post here will have a definitive answer”.
We do. Economists define a “recession” as a decline in industrial activity using the standard measure of the value added created through the production of goods and services (GDP) in two successive quarters. Currently, such a decline in GDP appears likely for Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 based on multiple forecasts but reverting back to positive growth by Q2 or Q3 2023. Thus, we are likely to have a recession, but relatively short-lived within an overall secular growth trend.