I don’t think chumras = kids going off the derech.
AT ALL.
My in-laws keep more chumras than anyone else I know and the none of the children have so far shown any signs of rebelling! It has a lot to do with how it is done. Somehow, my hub and his siblings are all extremely proud of the way they do things. they look up to their father more than anyone else I know.
When a child is “at risk” it usually means that they have a set of factors that can cause them to become a “problem” or “go off the derech”. However they are only at risk. It is not definite that they will go off because some people go through adversity and come out stronger and some come out broken. I am not judging a child who has a rough childhood but the fact is some are just made of stronger stuff! (Looking back, I think I could have had some good excuses to “go off the derech” should I have wanted to but I didn’t want to so I never came close to anything like that!)
I also think that when you say chumros = off the derech? it could have something to do with how the parents are. In other words if children see that their parents are two-faced, having tons of chumras to show off to the world and then are not so good at home. But it really has nothing to do because they are the exception. there are those who are really sincere and are good at home and in the streets. whatever.