One of the few jobs you could have that being wrong won’t cause you to lose your job. I wonder if managers even have to do annual performance appraisals
Actually, any forecast can be quantitatively verified, so managers can indeed see who is skillful and who is not.
The problem is, meteorologists issue probabilistic forecasts (50% chance of rain) that the public interprets as deterministic (it WILL rain), so when it doesn’t rain, the meteorologist is “wrong.” Better communication of forecast data to the public is a big concern of meteorologists.
Given the Alabama tornadoes a while back as an example, meteorologists in Norman, OK, indicated a risk for a severe weather/tornado outbreak 5 days in advance. The day of the outbreak, they issued a “high risk” outlook for violent tornadoes, and issued “Particularly Dangerous Situation” tornado watches. When the tornadoes developed, I think there was an average of more than 20 minutes of warning before the storms arrived. I’d say that was a pretty good forecasting job.
I’ll admit though, I am biased.