The country has too many bored politicians. Note that of the Republican candidates, most are currently unemployed. Perry, Bachmann and Paul all have jobs – the rest are “retired” with too much spare time on their hands – so they start running for President two or three years before the election. So much can happen between now and Novemver 2012, that any speculation is meaningless.
But since I’m already in a yuntufdik mood and don’t feel like doing any real work, I speculate:
1. Eric Cantor will be widely discussed as a Vice-Presidential candidate in 2012, and possible future Presidential nominee. This is based on his role as the Tea Party advocate in Congress, combined with being the Majority Leader of the House of Representatives. Having a Jewish (“conservadox”, at least not an embarassment such as Weiner or Spitzer) Republican will encourage a large percentage of Orthodox Jews to switch from being moderate Democrats to Republicans, including in New York local and state politics.
2. Cain’s radical idea (eliminate the payroll tax, use of a consumption tax, paying for social security and medicare from general revenue) will be adopted by more and more Republicans. Cain will be a major candidate as the “Tea party” favorite, which will offer Black conservatives an opportunity to break with the Democrats and return (as they were until 60 years) to the Republicans.
3. Obama will seek a major foreign policy triumph (an Arab-Israeli peace treaty would be nice but improbable, but I’ld bet on Korean reunification or a revolution in Cuba) to beef up his disasterous resume.