Obama-Biden will easily win.
Prof. Alan Lichtman of American University has a method of predicting the popular vote winner in Presidential elections. It has a 100% success record in every election from 1860 to 2008. Only the Harlem Globetrotters and the University of Connecticut women’s basketball team have similar streaks going right now.
The method identifies 13 keys. If six favor the party out of power, it wins. However, only four favor the Republicans right now and it isn’t clear how two of them are going to change, especially since the tax deal will have the effect of stimulating the economy.