I think Amsallem does have a chance of getting in.
Sushee, many people feel that UTJ does not represent that “average” chareidi.
As akuperma and truthsharer pointed out, this is the first election where the religious are starting to become a real political force, instead of just a kingmaker when the balance of power between left and right becomes to delicate.
I disagree with truthsharer that Shas will lose seats. I think Deri is likable enough to make up for a lot of faults in Shas.