Reply To: Israel election: it doesn't look good

The only real difference between Likud is Yesh Atid is the anti-Hareidi platform of Lapid, which most of Likud-YisraelBeitenu supports. Lapid and Lieberman are very similar ideologically. Also remember that the leaders of Bayit Yehudi (whose don’t especially like hareidim, and probably would have no problem being in a secular government unless that government actively persecuted hareidim) and the Livni party – all have strong historical ties with Likud.

I’ld suspect the most likely result will be Likud offering to from a “Hareidi-free” coalition that cuts off funding for all Hareidi institutions that don’t cooperate with conscription, with the alternative being Hareidi supporting a government that sharply cuts funding to frum institution and strongly encourages enlistment (with a cut off of government funding to those opposed to conscription) and that the “bone” the Hareidim might have to settle for will be to allow anyone to claim to be a “religious objector” to serving in the army not to mention receive financial benefits from the government.

Of course, the anti-zionist Hareidim (who don’t vote, don’t accept government money, and would love to “monkey wrench” the medinah) are probably delighted, waiting for the moment to put up posters say “See, we were right all along”.