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So I had a friend bemoaning the potential for another Oct 7 catastrophe bc, for the first time since Oct 7, RH is falling on shabbos and we all know the chazal. So I decided to put AI to use and I told it the following parameters.
“I want a list of the top 10 calamities that have befallen the Jewish people in the last 1500 years and I want to know on what day of the week RH fell that year” I insisted it add 5 events and choose similar type events.
The 5 events were
1) The German pogrom at the beginning of the crusades
2) Expulsion of Spain
3) Tach v’tat
4) Onset of WW2
5) Oct 7
Out of the list of 10. Only 2 occured in a shabbos year. That is 20% and well below the 29% of the time that RH occurs on shabbos
On the other hand 50% of events happened on a Monday which is well above the 28% of the time RH falls on Monday
So it is statistically accurate to say that the greatest chance of having a major calamity is when RH falls on Monday.
If I made you feel better about this year, you are welcome
If I gave you anxiety about the next time RH falls on Monday, I apologize.
Ksiva v’chasima tova!SB, can you repeat the experiment separating these 2 questions, otherwise you are risking that AI understands where you are going. So, first do a new session – find years of events. Then, separately, check RH events. Also, check what percentage of years start with shabbos. Last 2 steps can be done on hebcal.com or similar site.
Also, think what is the event starting date. For example, many historians see start of WW1 not of WW2 as the start, as WW2 was the logical continuation of unfinished business of WW1 …
Burning of Talmuds in France – R Yonah attributes it to Jews burning Rambams …
I have done the sugya deeply and the only time its noigea is when you don’t do tekias because stam, however due to shabbos being an oines then the gemora is not referring to this type of case, so don’t get too scared SB613
Also the gemore says כָּל שָׁנָה שֶׁאֵין תּוֹקְעִין לָהּ בִּתְחִלָּתָהּ — מְרִיעִין לָהּ בְּסוֹפָהּ which means bad stuff will happen at the end of the year, close to rosh hashana of the next year and don’t know if you remember but october 7 was at begining of yearIt’s good we now have AI to pasken all our Shailos. And to give us Nevuah. And explain past events and how it’ll affect the future.
Who needs Gedolim anymore, when we have AI.
So it is statistically accurate to say that the greatest chance of having a major calamity is when RH falls on Monday.
No. That’s a fallacy called “Post hoc ergo propter hoc” (“”Because event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X”.).
> Who needs Gedolim anymore, when we have AI.
When R Seinsaltz was asked to explain Holocaust, he pointed out that it took hundreds of years for Gemora to settle on explanations for destruction of beis hamikdash. And life moves so fast nowadays, so if AI can help collect data explaining historical events, and even help choose path of life to begin with, it is not a bad thing.
SB used tools correctly – to collect and evaluate data, fully showing how he got to the answer. I pointed out a couple of things to improve, but genera procedure looks good.
Dovid> “Post hoc ergo propter hoc”
fallacy is often due to hidden variables that affect both events: if you observe that running daily causes longevity, it may be because healthy people are able to run daily. In this case, calendar and political events seem to be independent from each other.
SB613> I noticed a definite statistical cluster of uneven distribution I am not claiming that Monday triggers anything.
indeed, when you have such a tiny data set, you can only use it once to test your original hypothesis. When you start coming up with additional explanations, you lose any statistical power … you need to get a little more events, divide them in two groups, then use one of the groups to generate a most likely hypothesis, and then test it on the other set, and then use significance test to see how non-random your result is.
Maybe you want to look at some events that are easier to measure, such as GDP growth or crops/rains/draughts/epidemies
I would be more worried about the many yidden using non kosher eruvs that consider themselves keeping Shabbos properly and ultimately won’t fix it, without shabbos we have nothing
I am sure there are improperly kept eruvim, but there are also people who reject using existing eruvim, sometimes for legitimate reasons, sometimes out of spite and feeling frummer. I’ve heard a sephardi rav who would not hold by Ashkenazi eruv, who instructed his congregation that they can follow the town minhag. He generally didn’t use it himself, but did in pressing circumstances when a family member had mobility problems.
AAQ: I was told this story by someone who lives in Elizabeth, NJ.
Someone was once visiting the community for Shabbos. He didn’t like to rely on eruvin, so on Shabbos he was wearing his tallis to shul. R’ Teitz zt”l saw him, and asked him, “Is my eruv not good enough for you? I’m extremely careful to make sure it’s 100% kosher! And now you’re implying that it’s not ok?!?”
The man assured him that he meant no offence, and went on his way.
A few weeks later, the man was there again. He didn’t want to offend R’ Teitz again, so this time, he put a jacket on over his tallis, so it wouldn’t be seen. The problem was, it was a hot summer Shabbos.
Sure enough, he again ran into R’ Teitz zt”l. R’ Teitz took one look at him, and burst out laughing, saying, “Now you’re just being silly!”Well why would I be worried about someone who could use one and doesn’t, I’m worried about the ones that can’t and do anyway
I think we have to account for who the “perps” are in these attacks. Are they europeans of a certain religion who may be working on Saturdays and only have the 1 day off to go to their church?
Or are they part of a well funded islamic terror group that can easily pick and choose when to carry out their missions?Like the protestors versus the paid protestors, daily routines, obligations, free time, etc seem to have a lot to say here. As interesting as the original premise was notwithstanding.
DaMoshe thanks for a good story and a proof that even R Teitz would not be trusted by this “frum” Jews. At least, he tried not to offend the Rav …
R Mintz quotes R Ruderman – question was whether bochrim going fundraising during summer could/should shave. Not sure if this was abou 3 weeks or b’klal. His answer – if Rav of the city shaves, they should too so not to present themselves frummer than the rav.
One place R Ruderman uses frumkeit for halocha – we should tip more than others and “proportional to the length of the beard”. I translated to my daughters – according to length of the skirt … (maybe percentage of leg covered, with standard american amount being 20% but I am not going there)
rebEmes> Well why would I be worried about someone who could use one and doesn’t,
DaMoshe brought an example. There is generally value to have uniform rules and Rav in a town. This is lost in big Jewish communities where everyone is doing their own thnig, but at least in small communities, it is important to maintain kavod harav. See R Ruderman beard story above.
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