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If the current numbers are correct (likud-29, kulanu-10, bayit yehudi-8, shas-7, and UTJ-6), then that doesn’t equal a government. Bibi may be forced to dump the chareidim and build an anti charedi government with Lapid and Lieberman. That would spell very bad news for klal yisrael.
Liberman and charedim are in
Likud got 30 so Netanyahu can have a government of 61 with just the Chareidim and without Lieberman and certainly without Lapid. And Lieberman can be convinced to join, anyways, even with cancelling the draft, as he has bigger issues he’s more interested in. (He’s pre-election comments he will insist on keeping the draft was simply pre-election vote pandering. He’s changed positions post-election before on other issues as well that he claimed he would stand for pre-election.) But Netanyahu doesn’t need Lieberman to get to 61 since he has 30 himself.
1. Lieberman may back down, perhaps for freedom to vote against repealing the conscription law and of course, patronage. Lapid might also back down, but that’s less likely. Likud might prefer to have Labor as a partner rather than Lieberman or Lapid – in part since Labor’s patronage demands are about the same as Lieberman and Lapid.
2. It might depend on the form that exempting hareidim takes. If, for example, Israel moves towards a volunteer/professional army, with liberal veterans benefits (which are cuurently considered to be unconstitutional discrimination against not veterans), there will be less opposition than to specifically exempting yeshiva students.
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