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Would love to have a good thread where everyone could post their thought on the upcoming presidential election. This is for both the Republican and the Democratic candidates.
There are many things that can be discussed here:
1) Which candidate do you think is the best for the country (NOT who you think will win) from the republican side? From the Democratic side? Please explain why as well.
2) Which candidate do you think WILL win the Primaries from the republican side? From the Democratic side? Please explain why as well.
3) Do you think there is any candidate, who is not from the top two, who you think will get a boost and become one of the top contenders?
4) The latest news on the candidates. (current examples: 1) Will Donald Trump actually skip the debate? If yes, will it hurt or help him? If yes, will the amount of viewers fall considerably? Do you think Donald Trump is right about being treated unfairly? 2) Will Donald Trump accept Ted Cruz’s challenge to have a one-on-one debate with him? If not, how will he get out of it without looking afraid to have a debate? 3) Will Hillary Clinton be indicted by the FBI? If not, will it effect her in any way? 4) Will any loss come for Hillary Clinton from the coughing attack she had at a public event of hers? 5) Will Bernie Sanders at some point start attacking Hilary Clinton? 6) Do you think Mayor Michael Bloomberg will actually take the plunge and join the race for president as an independent? If yes, who will it effect more, democrats or republicans? Which candidate is the most afraid of him running?)
1) R – Cruz, D – None
2) R – impossible to predict, D – Clinton (shoe-in)
3) Rubio
4) No indictment. If Bloomberg gets in (which is very unlikely), he’ll hurt the Democrats.
1)R- Trump. D – Clinton (was Webb before he dropped out).
2)R- Trump. D- Do I even need to say?
3)No
4) (No comment on 1,2. Already happened). iii) No indictment. iv)huh? v)Not directly. vi)He won’t join, but Jim Webb might.
I would like to add a question: Is the candidate you think is best for the country the one you will be voting for in the primary? Or, will your vote be (at least partially) based off of who can beat the other side?
My answer is undecided.
All candidates will be equally “good for the Jews” except for Sanders who would be a disaster (he is a socialist, allied in the past with the ultra-secular vehemently anti-Torah factions in Eretz Yisrael, and his policies restricting personal freedom in favor of state control of personal decision making would trample religious minorities).
Given the two “dark horses” have risen to leadership in both parties, any predictions are meaningless. One most issues Trump is a conservative Democrat (think Henry Jackson, Hubert Humphrey, Franklin Roosevelt, John Kennedy, Bill Clinton as he was in 1992) – except for being loud and somewhat bigotted he’s a classic RINO. Sanders is a hard core socialist (note how he honeymooned in the “workers paradise”). In stead of guessing based on polls, one might as well throw dice.
“Which candidate do you think is the best for the country (NOT who you think will win) from the republican side? “
Rubio. He is the only major Republican to have supported health care for the 9/11 responders, he understands that immigrants are people, and his “New American Century” is a positive vision for the future.
“From the Democratic side? “
Clinton. She is the only candidate from either party with any experience in foreign policy at all. (We have had three consecutive presidents who have had on the job training.) And her detailed issues essays show an understanding of the complexities of government that none of the other candidates show. She also has the best group of advisors of any candidate.
“Which candidate do you think WILL win the Primaries from the republican side? From the Democratic side?”
If I could predict that I would be placing large bets and not telling anyone by reasoning! 😉
“except for Sanders who would be a disaster (he is a socialist, allied in the past with the ultra-secular vehemently anti-Torah factions in Eretz Yisrael, and his policies restricting personal freedom in favor of state control of personal decision making”
Sanders barely qualifies as a socialist; the only thing he wants to have the government run is health insurance, a system that works a lot better in countries that do that than the US system does. His real ideology is welfare state capitalism, which is actually closer to the Torah ideal than either laissez-faire or real socialism. And the “anti-Torah alliance” allegation is nonsense — he can’t even remember the name or affiliation of the kibbutz he lived in! Besides, that was over 50 years ago; at the same time Clinton was campaigning for Barry Goldwater. Are you going to disqualify Ted Cruz because his father, with whom he is close, worked for Fidel Castro? And every Republican favors much more draconian restrictions in personal freedom than Sanders. Sanders also did not “honeymoon” in the Soviet Union; he traveled there on official business as Mayor of Burlington, Vermont to establish a sister city program with a city in what is now Russia. Burlington is a rather well-governed city with a 2.7% unemployment rate even though it has lost most of its industry.
bentzion: You asked who we thought would be best for the country. That question, in no way, asks who we think has the best chance of winning. This is a dilemma that Trump, Cruz, and Bernie Sanders fans share alike.
The media and Rubio himself are certainly painting Rubio as having won by coming in third. The theory is that if all the other RINOs drop out, then their votes will all have to go to Rubio by default and he’ll win. For a long time now, a portion of this election has been a competition for last RINO standing.
As for the apparent surprise from the results: the order is just about exactly as it was supposed to be. There was one (clearly faulty) last minute poll that showed Trump as winning Iowa. All other Iowa polls for the past couple have weeks have shown the order exactly as it happened. The real surprise last night was Bernie Sanders. I never thought he would do as well as the polls suggested. He ended up outperforming his poll numbers!
Also, mazel tov, Joseph, on the victory of your favored candidate last night.
I was also correct on question 3, wasn’t I. Yesterday could almost be called a three-way tie with everyone else virtually falling behind the radar. Rubio almost tied Trump with Trump being much closer to Rubio than Cruz.
The “surprise”, if it can be called that based on the media and polling pundits, wasn’t that Rubio was third but rather that Rubio did better than predicted and did almost as well as the first two rather than being a distant third as predicted.
Iowa is a small State and it is lav davka that the caucus winner becomes the nominee.
NC
“The theory is that if all the other RINOs drop out, then their votes will all have to go to Rubio by default and he’ll win. “
It is a pretty good threory. He already has 7 delegates (equal to Trump) only one less than Cruz (note this is about 0.65% of delgetaes needed to get the nomination).
So in terms of delegates they are essentially equal. All he needs to do is build up Momentum, paint himself as the altrenate to Trump and Cruz and he will probably get the nomination
“All other Iowa polls for the past couple have weeks have shown the order exactly as it happened”
virtually every poll I saw over the past 2 weeks had Trump in first place incluiding: qUINIPAC, NBC WSJ Bloomberg CBS Fox News CNN all had Trump in first place (in some cases by 10 percentage points)
Neville ChaimBerlin: you are wrong. The last few polls,including the ones they call “the golden one”, showed Trump winning comfortably and Rubio getting-at most- 16%. BOTH of these predictions were false. Trump lost pretty decisively and Rubio over performed in a great way. All the Trump supporters and the radio pundits are spinning this as a victory for Trump,etc….Ha! Spin, spin,spin!
See Rubio coming out of New hampshire as the new front runner!
ROB: You are right. The Trump win polls went back further than I thought. Nevertheless, the fact that Cruz won should not be that big of a surprise. Rubio did indeed outperform his numbers, but not his place. 0 chance of Rubio winning New Hampshire. I’m not saying he can’t get the nomination, but Kasich and Christie will be taking a lot of the establishment vote in New Hampshire. After Kasich and Christie lose New Hampshire, and probably under-perform, I suspect they’ll drop out. Things might really change after New Hampshire. I’m still betting Trump is the nominee, but that prediction could change.
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