akuperma-good post.
A couple points: The charedi conscription issue is viewed by many as simply monetary i.e. how severely will they fine and how many benefits will they take away, but not viewed in the context of will charedim actually go to the army. With Ashkenazi Israelis this is probably the case for the most part.
The Sefardi leadership is genuinely scared though. Many of their bachurim come from traditional, irreligious homes. The fear is that while they already suffer lack of support from their families, if you add to that the pressure of the state and the monetary losses, these boys might feel that they have no choice but to enlist. Speak to the sefardi rabbanim in Israel. They see this as an existential threat.
Unfortunately, if the above scenario plays out c”v, the government will have done quite a job.