BarryLS1:
Rav Elchonon Wasserman answered your question well before Israel even came into existence (but long after Zionism has begun to shmad our people). He noted that Zionism is Avoda Zara while “Religious Zionism” is simply Religion mixed into Avoda Zara.
Your wrote: “It should be obvious to every Jews by now that Israel could not have survived and thrived without Hashem”. Similarly, and not to compare the two, one could at least as easily point out the same, but with one small change: “It should be obvious to every Jews by now that Hitler YM”S could not have survived and thrived without Hashem.”
The flaw in that logic is thus quite clear: what Hashem allows to happen is not at all necessarily what He “wants” to happen.
Further, as you wrote, “only the hard-core cult-like among us can’t recognize reality after all this time…” but should have continued with something like: and fail to see the how Zionism and the State of Israel (despite the Yeshivos, etc.) are the anti-thesis of Judaism and certainly not the ratzon Hashem as it is explicitly forbidden for Jews to have a State before Mashiach, the shmad, human sacrifices, etc.
Nissim mean nothing, of course, in terms of determining right or wrong. That’s straight out in the Torah: “ki minaseh Hashem eschem…” (and expounded on later).
The Brisker Rav, who lived in E”Y at the time of the State’s founding answered your last question. He noted that at that eis ratzon, had the Jews davened for the true geulah instead of the State, they would have received that. But since they asked for the State, with all its many problems, then that is what Hashem gave them, unfortunately.