akuperma – The most obvious recent point of departure (since you changed the question) is 9/11. If camps had been created for Muslims, then there is no reason why Religious Jews would not be next. Certainly could have stepped once “Goldman” and “Sachs” and “Bernanke” (i.e. Jews) could have been blamed for a more serious economic collapse.
As far as probability, the Holocaust was so obviously the Yad Hashem it is worthless to project. Our job is to follow and fear Him, and get along with each other so that Moshiach arrives.