The media and Rubio himself are certainly painting Rubio as having won by coming in third. The theory is that if all the other RINOs drop out, then their votes will all have to go to Rubio by default and he’ll win. For a long time now, a portion of this election has been a competition for last RINO standing.
As for the apparent surprise from the results: the order is just about exactly as it was supposed to be. There was one (clearly faulty) last minute poll that showed Trump as winning Iowa. All other Iowa polls for the past couple have weeks have shown the order exactly as it happened. The real surprise last night was Bernie Sanders. I never thought he would do as well as the polls suggested. He ended up outperforming his poll numbers!
Also, mazel tov, Joseph, on the victory of your favored candidate last night.