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“The theory is that if all the other RINOs drop out, then their votes will all have to go to Rubio by default and he’ll win. “
It is a pretty good threory. He already has 7 delegates (equal to Trump) only one less than Cruz (note this is about 0.65% of delgetaes needed to get the nomination).
So in terms of delegates they are essentially equal. All he needs to do is build up Momentum, paint himself as the altrenate to Trump and Cruz and he will probably get the nomination
“All other Iowa polls for the past couple have weeks have shown the order exactly as it happened”
virtually every poll I saw over the past 2 weeks had Trump in first place incluiding: qUINIPAC, NBC WSJ Bloomberg CBS Fox News CNN all had Trump in first place (in some cases by 10 percentage points)