gavra, if there’s no Vadai that the unsaved will die, why deviate from the halacha as given in the Gemora and S”A? Regarding the percentage, if it is less than 51% likelihood of surviving, I surely see no reason to take that into account to deviate from the standard halacha. Arguably, anything less than 100% should leave the standard halacha in effect.
lilmod, I understood Redleg to mean he makes no distinction between yidden and goyim. If he’s only referring to goyim then my comment to him is possibly inapplicable.
Person1, see the Mishnah in Horios 3:7, the Rambam on the Mishna, Beis Yosef YD 251 and S”A YD 252:8.