I agree the Lawrence is unlikely to be overturned. Even among hard-core social conservatives, few are eager to return to criminal prosecutions of this kind. No one’s going to even try to overturn it.
Obergefell is different. It is a relatively recent 5-4 decision, which Scalia called “lawless” in his dissent. Some experts may claim it’s unlikely to be overturned, but really nobody knows. It all depends on whether someone tries to challenge it, and what the justices decide. I think there’s a pretty good chance of overturning it if there is a decent challenge.
Roe is different because it’s an old case, a so-called “super-precedent.” But it could still be overturned. It all depends.