Here’s why I thought Trump would be re-elected.
People tend to re-elect Presidents who are in office while the economy is good. Jimmy Carter was thrown out after one term largely because of horrible inflation and his lack of confidence that the economy could rebound. Bush the First was bounced in 1992 because of a stubborn recession that began in 1990. I thought Trump would be re-elected because, prior to COVID, the economy was humming along and unemployment was at record lows among minorities. The Democrats were reduced to claiming that the “jobs” that Trump created were in fast food restaurants and the like, but jobs were jobs. The COVID pandemic was a blessing for the Democrats. The virus spread quickly without any knowledge of a cure or a vaccine, people died, the country went into lockdown and the economy tanked. Unemployment skyrocketed. Trump bumbled his way through this (not sure how anyone could have done much better – there hadn’t been a health crisis like this in 100 years) and in the end, the Dems were able to blame everything on him and, with the help of the leftist media, got their man in.
I have no doubt that had COVID never happened, Trump would have been re-elected.