Reply To: covid forecast

HaLeivi > I’d say it hit be much fewer than any previous time, and likely no casualties.
and more similar.

I can’t speak for your community. We did some analysis here and it may be indeed that some places were hit hard in early months and thus have a lot of immune people. More generally, this is not true – number of people dying in 2021 is more than in 2020. There were Jewish niftarim in 2021, including R Twersky … True, most vulnerable old/sick were already affected or/and vaccinated, but masses of less vulnerable are hit in large numbers. While each has lower probability of sickness, with millions of people, there are still victims.

Furthermore, when talking about population hit early – many of them undoubtfully losing that early immunity and also Delta is different from early Wuhan.