Does Rambam or Abarbanel suggest that people spend their lives wagering on who is the preferred Moschiach candidate and base their lives on that? Not a rhetorical question. During certain times, like Bar Kochba, many did … And Shabtai Tzvi
Maybe also worth looking at the gemora that suggests how the farmer should react when chasidim are passing by on the way to Yerushalaim saying they are welcoming Moschiach – finish plowing the field and then go (quoting by memory, so just suggesting to look into the sugya).
Also, on Abarbanel, look at the historical context of his writings: (this is from BenZion Netanyuahu’s book): A was travelling around Sefardi communities after the exile and trying to build up foundations of emunah going forward after the disaster they experienced.