You can come to the irrefutable conclusion that draft is shmad by answering the following questions
What is the rate of going off the derech for Haredi soldiers, as compared to Haredi boys not in the army?
If the draft is implemented, and all Haredi boys go to the military, will the rate of OTD in the army drastically lower?
What will be the impact of the OTD rate of Haredi recruits on the Haredi society?
Now you may say that shmad is an acceptable price to pay for the security of the State, but that would be a different conversation. The original question asked wither the draft is Shmad, and it is indubitably.