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#2330462

as I mentioned, this is because of a biased correction. If they would have simply missed some groups, then all polls would be off by 2% but there would be variation between polls and for same poll over time. As some analysts noticed, the polls stayed suspiciously synchronized and stable over time.

What can we learn from this? Sometimes, we can apply good thinking but be burdened by unjustified assumptions that bias us towards certain opinion that we hold historically, or because we were raised in a certain hashkofa, or because it is comfortable … We need to always analyze our intellectual biases. It is often hard to do on your own. A lot of analysis in Bavli is about that type of discussion. And, hopefully, discussions here, when done in a right way, help us to see issues from different perspectives.