First of all, Rusty’s full name is Rustowitz, and he prefers to be addressed that way.
Second, in probability there is a priori and a posteriori probability. Given A, what are the chances that B will occur is a priori, sometimes called conditional probability. Given B, what is the chance that A has occurred is a posteriori. If Bayes rule sounds familiar, you will remember what I mean. I havenb’t had time to look up the sugya in Bava Kamma, but I believe that you need to keep the above in mind.
Third, on a related topic, I thought of a simple hesber for the din of kol deparish meruba parish, kol kavua kmechtza al mechtza. When a piece of meat is on the ground, and their are ten butcher shops of which 9 are kosher, we have an objective, physical leidas hasafek in front of us. We therefore use the rov. However, when a person forgot which butcher shop he went to, the leidas hasafek is in his own mind. It is not an objective physical reality. If he remembered, then it is kosher, but if he didn’t remember, then we don’t use rov, since remembering and forgetting are only in this person’s head, and the rest of the world doesn’t know what is really going on in his mind. However, I seem to recently have come across a din which doesn’t fit with this hesber. Let me know what you think.