Mox:
If there is a study about charedim, I would hazard a guess it follows with the regular orthodox Jews as well. Do you know where that information is?
Also, my math was done on the basis that by age 20, there is an even ratio of men and women (since the male birth rate is higher but not the survival rate).
Not sure what you mean by boys who GOTD marrying within the orthodox community. That has not been my experience at all. Why would they marry orthodox women if they are not? Why would the women marry them? As far as the ratio – I’m going by my experience which has shown a significant difference in boys vs girls going OTD. Maybe someone has information on that? I think the social restrictions on boys are harsher is many ways (minyan, learning etc) than girls so you are more likely to get boys OTD than girls. Its a lot easier to be a good girl (or even a mediocre girl) than it is to be a good boy. No one knows if a girl is davening or not – everyone knows if a boy doesn’t go to minyan. So, I assumed the worst case scenario.
About applying it to dayschools vs adults – if you lose 6% of your population, that is a portion of the population that won’t have more orthodox children. So, it may not show up until 20 years later, but that is a reduction.
One note about the math – when calculating the growth rate taking into account boys GOTD the 6% is subtrated after deriving up the the ratio of boys to girls.
I’m not 100% what you are saying here – are you saying that if there is a 4% overall growth including 6% OTD? That would mean if we have 100 men and 100 women, losing 5% of men and 1% of women, you then have 95 men and 99 women. In order to get a total growth of 4%, you need to end up with 208 people. That equates to a growth of 7.22%. The men will increase in size to 101.8 and the women to 106.2. This would still be an exponential growth.
I would say the OTD numbers are somewhat critical to this (as to the ratio).
If this is the actual case, then the only solution is really polygamy since narrowing the age gap won’t really do anything. Its like putting a bandaid on a broken bone. Maybe Ames is willing to share?
Or, we can have women marry progressively younger and younger men, and encourage adoptions of girls.
Anon, I hear what you are saying about Asians, but the ratio still needs a portion of the population to average more girls to get the ratio closer towards 1. Somewhere, some group of people are having more girls than boys.
Squeak, I didnt realize AZ didnt read the study! No wonder he didnt want to answer my math questions.