NY Mom, it sounds like from Rav Shimshon Pinkus ZT”L (and from the Chinuch ) that Yishmael’s descendants didn’t have to do that, while a Ben sorer Umoreh will definitely commit bad aveiros in the future. Hashem knows what evryone will do in the future. However, that doesn’t mean they don’t have bechira. A ben sorer umoreh, by contrast, has already started down a path which will DEFINITELY lead to the reprehensible actions. He no longer has a bechira, and he sealed his own fate.
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