Here are the candidates with a chance:
– Barack Obama. I give the president a slightly more than 50% chance of being reelected. The two biggest variables are who the Republicans nominate, and how quickly the economy improves.
– Mitt Romney. The Republican candidate to beat. Well known, has a strong network of donors, and does best in polls against Obama. Many voters are suspicious of him, though, because he changed his position on abortion, and supported a healthcare bill in Massachusetts that is very similar to the Obamacare bill he opposes. The fact that he’s Mormon doesn’t help him with Republican primary voters.
– Jon Huntsman. We’ll be hearing more from him soon. Succesful businessman, governor of Utah, and US ambassador to China (actually appointed by Obama). A strong fiscal conservative, but has moderate views on some social issues and the environment. Electable due to his moderate views, charisma, and experience in business, domestic policy, and foreign policy. My personal choice.
– Tim Pawlenty. Trying the hardest. Seems like a nice guy, but lacks experience, charisma, and name recognition.
– Newt Gingrich. Strengths include name recognition, conservative credentials, and intelligence. Weaknesses include his age, unrestrained mouth, and history of adultery.
– Michele Bachman. If she runs, will get the support of angry Tea Party voters. Will do well in primaries, but can’t be elected due to her history of outrageous statements. (Congress should “investigate” which of its members are “anti-American”)
– Ron Paul. Has money, and many devoted followers. Distrusted by most Republicans because of his opposition to the military. Bad on Israel.
– Sarah Palin. Mostly a joke by now. Lost her chance with most voters when she quit as governor of Alaska to focus on her reality TV show. Probably won’t run.
Most Republicans aren’t satisfied with their choices and are looking for other candidates. Potential surprise candidates include Jeb Bush, Texas governor Rick Perry, and NJ governor Chris Christie.