The source for the Rosh will have to wait about a week until i get back to my notebook. I have no response to your probability thing. I don’t think it’s a probability there. I think we can say, based on statistical percentages worldwide, that Anan Sahadi that there is more than 1.6% Treifos in any large batch of cows. Agree to disagree there I guess. And I am not talking about having Kulos. I am just talking about not having Chumros which in other situations we wouldn’t take (e.g. to be Yotzei one Rishon or to worry about a minority opinion that has already been dismissed by the Poskim, etc.).
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