write or wrong,
You’re still wrong, on two counts:
1. You don’t like bears? Fine. There are plenty of cats in my neighborhood.
I can either be clawed to death by a cat today or not. But that doesn’t make it a 50% chance. Just because there are two possibilities does not mean that the two possibilities have equal probabilities.
2. You’re correct that it’s HKBH who will determine who wins the lottery. But even so, if it were really 50%, then roughly half the people who play the lottery would win. Since they don’t, the chances are not 50-50.
The Wolf