To the Wolf/On the Ball
You are right that just bc there are 2 possibilities, it doesn’t mean that the probabilities are equal. But how can you assume to know what the probabilities are?
Anything in the world can “happen” or “not happen”, ie bears, cats , television sets falling on someone’s head etc. And in a world where everything is run by teva, the odds would be astronomical for those things to occur. BUT, in a world where everything is run by Hashem, the odds that something will happen are un-knowable to us, bc we don’t know what Hashem wants to happen. Anyone who says they know what the odds are, has to preface it by saying, “In a world run by teva…”. As far as we can see, it should be that everyone’s odds of winning the lottery are 50-50, until we know who the winner is, and then in retrospect, we can say, we either had 100% chance of winning (if we won), or a ZERO percent chance of winning.