Reply To: Beni Yishma'el

Hi Frummy, hope you had an easy and meaningful fast.

I totally get and understand what you’re saying. Your numbers are correct, and given your specific scenario, every person will be a descendants of yishmael (and from every person of generation 1) by generation 14. In your scenario, every single couple multiplies at the exact same rate for 14 generation, thereby increasing the odds by 50% with every new generation.

(btw, nice chart, well done!)

Here are 2 others scenarios (both can occur in any of the 14 generations)…

Scenario 1:

Generation 1 odds – 1:10000

The gender population is 50/50, there are 5000 couples. 2000 couples have 10 kids, 3000 have 8 kids. Person A has 4 kids.

Scenario 2:

Generation 1 odds – 1:10000

The gender population is 50/50, there are 5000 couples. 3000 individuals take an additional spouse outside their own population, there are now 8000 females. 3000 have 6 kids (18000), 4000 have 5 kids (20000), the remaining 1000, including person A, have 4 kids (4000).

Now of course you can take my numbers and turn them around to your advantage, my point is, there is no way of knowing with certainty. Person A had to compete with thousands of couples and ensure that he multiplies equally or greater-than the rest of them. What are the chances that he (or somewhere along 14 generations) was by far outnumbered, very possible!