What matters is whether the parties that support learning Torah and exempting yeshiva students, that is to say United Torah Judaism, Shas, and Bayit Yehudi (i.e. the parties who consider learnign Torah something the state should support) either are strong enough to form a government (highly unlikely, though they will have over 30 seats, which is their best performance in history) OR (as is more likely) to convince the secular elites not to go through with their plan to ban 18-21 year olds from learning Torah – convincing as part of the coalition process. Since most of the secular parties are more concerned about matters such as economics and national security, they’ll probably cut a deal to allow Torah in return for getting a free hand in other areas – as has been the case since 1949.
In the 1950s and 1960, the hareidim and religious zionists consistently got about 14 seats. Now they are getting over 30. While they disagree on many issues (Bayit Yehudi is as least as interested in national security as it is yiddishkeit, and Shas is almost as concerned with social and economic issues as with yiddishkeit), they are approaching the point where Israel will have three equal blocks (Nationalist, Left/Socialist, Religious) and it is not inconceivable that if the religious parties get together, they might someday be in a position to form a government.