Hi Reuvein,
The shidduch crisis and age gap concept, were NOT discovered by a statistical analysis of how many girls are still single post 28 years old or whatever arbitrary age we would like to use, and contrasting that with the number of older boys who are single. It is almost impossible to accurately count the total number of singles at any given time.
Are there some guys still single? Certainly, but the number of known girls who have dated 5/10 years and are still single dwarfs their male counterparts by very significant numbers.
The question then became why? How could this be?
The two observations are as follows.
1. Our population is growing i.e. younger grades are significantly larger than older grades and as such the number of young adults turning 19 each year is significantly larger than the number of young adults turning 23 each year. This population growth is obvious to the naked eye, and has been supported by numerous studies, see below. There is certainly room for discussion to figure out the exact ratio of population growth. Such discussion will affect the determination of the precise number of projected leftover young women. But however one counts the growth rate is such as to have a significant discrepancy between young adults age 19 and young adults age 23.
2. The age at which young women in our communities seek to marry is a few years earlier than the age at which young men seek to marry. And the inevitable results is that the average age of a young man as the time of marriage is a few years older than the average age of a young woman at the time of marriage. There has been no scientific statistical study of this second observation, but it is self evident. Once again there is room to discuss the exact average age gap between husband and wife. It may be 3 years, it may be 4 years, but it should be clear to all that it is significant.
Thus, if we take these two observations to their obvious conclusion, that there are far more 19 year olds in our communities then there are 23 year olds, and we realize that young men first begin shidduchim mid to upper 22 and young women begin shidduchim around 19, it is obvious that we have a significant problem on our hands.
One can study the data of population growth, and one can try to guesstimate the average discrepancy amongst starting dating ages, and the results of such study will certainly have a variance as to the total number of projected girls who are unmatched. But all would agree that the result is very significant and worrisome, even if there is a variance as to the exact number/percentage of women who will unfortunately remain unmatched.
One more important point, the projected number of unmatched young women as a result of the age gap concept, is NOT the total number of girls who are unmarried after 5/10 years of dating. This is the projected number of girls who will remain unmarried even if every young man gets married. For every young man that stays unmarried, that will cause another young woman to unmarried. Thus the total number of girls who are unmarried after 5/10 years of dating is above and beyond the number of girls projected to be unmatched due to age gap.
With this introduction we can now address your specific questions.
1. We are never told what percentages of guys are single?
2. How many of the young woman in question might not be on the yeshivish shidduch market at this point?
The number 10% is not related to yeshivish style dating
3. What percentage of this statistic are divorced or widowed?
10% is the number of older girls who cannot be married at any given time even if every available boy is married.
The actual number of older unmarried girls at any given time is higher because there are of course some boys who are not married. So if 3% of older boys are unmarried at any given time then there will be actually 13% of older girls not married.
The number of girls who cannot ever be married is impossible to guess. It’s even possible that every girl could get married at some point in her life. Suppose we make a (ridiculous) rule that every marriage has to end after 10 years. Of course now we can play merry go round and the women who didn’t get a husband the first go round can find a husband the second go round. But at every point there will be 10% who can’t be married plus an additional percentage who are actually not married at any given time because of the number of men that are single at that point in time.
Similarly suppose there is a 50% divorce rate. Then the girls who weren’t married the first time can find husbands from guys who had previously been married (at the expense of the girls who are now divorced). This by the way is a primary factor in why women who have previously been married (divorcees or widows) have a much harder time getting married a second time, as opposed to men in a similar position looking to get married a second time around.
4. We know nothing about the methodology of the study. Did the people who collected the data control for other factors? How big was the sample? How many years of data do they have?
5. How many of the people involved in propagating this simple math have a working understanding of statistics let alone graduated high school?
6. What is the confidence level of the study?
Anyone who would like to receive specific detailed technical information on the studies that were done as well as be put in contact with the people who did the research, is welcome to contact the NASI Project
A few points;
[Dr. Marvin Shick, Avi Chai Foundation, http://www.avichai.org/knowledge-center. as well as other sources.
c. The research was done by different people at different times who reached the same conclusions.
7. I did a quick sampling of guys about age 30 and in many classes 7-11% are still single. So according to my, possibly, equally unscientific data, the gap between percentage of guys single and young woman single is statistically insignificant.
8. Let’s say that in one city 17% percent of a class is single and in another 3% is. When we average the two classes we will get 10%, but we would be better served and we would be helping those singles more, if we looked for a reason specific to that city.
9. Let’s say more girls leave our circles than guys do, then we need to know what percentage that is before we draw conclusions.
Discussions with people in the field have yielded that the number of guys who leave our circles to never come back and marry in our circles, is in no way more significant than the number of girls who go the same route.
I challenge, NASI and whomever else is involved in this, to make the data public so the community can assess if the simple story they are telling us holds water. They can set up a website, make it available for download and redact any personal information.
What you have to explain is which of the following basic premises you think are not correct.
1. The total number of girls who have been dating 5+ years and are still single is substantially more than the total number of boys that have been dating 5+ years and are still single.
2. Population growth
3. Age differential
I don’t doubt that the people involved in this are well meaning, I just think that before the community makes major changes to its way of life and risks the shalom bais of the next generation that we hold this data to more scrutiny.
The allegation re: shalom bayis is simply unfounded. Is a boy marrying a girl his own age more at risk for shalom bayis issues? Are boys who prefer not to go to EY and thus as a result of their decision to not go to EY and beginning shidduchim when they are ready, which will likely happen to be at a slightly younger age than they currently do, create a risk of shalom bayis? Is there any reason to think that boys at 22.5 are less prepared to be quality husbands and fathers then they are at 23?
NASI Project