I read the letter and the response, over shabbos.
The basic analysis:
Letter writer writes thoughtful and respectful question.
NASI squanders chance to make meaningful contribution, and instead throws polemic.
NASI should have asked me to write the response. I will write the response now, for them.
Dear Reuvain,
There is no scientific study, and thus no confidence level or any other mathematical stuff. But here is what there is:
1. Overwhelming anecdotal evidence. Everyone who is involved in shidduchim knows that there are way more girls than boys. This is proven by the simple observation that boys are able to go on dates any time they please, while most girls are practically scrounging for dates. It is simply undeniable.
2. Mathematical theory. There is population growth, and matching up the smaller population with the subsequent bigger population will skew the numbers towards more girls. This is math, and it can even tell us how much it will skew.
3. Causation. We have no idea. We do not know if the age gap is causing the crisis or not. But, it doesn’t matter, because it is obvious that correcting the age gap will ameliorate the problem at least to some extent.
4. Effect on Shalom bayis. It is patently obvious that there will be a negative effect on our marriages as a result of the changes we advocate. We think it is worth it.
5. Study. There was a study done, but the results were constrained by the poor quality of the data. It will be uploaded to our website where it may be viewed.