“1) We see it work out and we assume it will continue to work in the future.”
I’ve thought about this before. Just because an apple falls from the tree a million times whose to say it should do the same the millionth and one? I don’t know but we call it gravity and it works.
But the reality is, that there is no gravity, there is no nature. There is just Hashem. Every time that apple falls it is because Hashem made it happen. And that why once in a while gravity doesn’t work and you have crias yam suf. Because Hashem is the one doing it. Now Hashem keeps things going in a natural way so we could be tested in either believing in nature or Him.
I forget the source but I believe it’s been said that the difference between nature and a miracle is repetition.