40 states were either solid Romney or Obama. There was nothing to “predict”. The last ten had many that Romney didn’t expect to win unless he got lucky. Like Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, etc. Nate went with the odds on those, just like most others. Most GOP’ers were hoping for (but not expecting) surprises. The couple of states that were tied in the polling, like Ohio and Florida, Nate went with Obama as a partisan hack and came up lucky. Nate only flipped two coins, both of which the results went his way due to bad turnout for the GOP.
If he had the correct data to back his predictions up, I would think higher of his work. He thought that Obama turnout would be at 2008 levels with a D+7 turnout. He ended up being right, with the results ending up between D+3 and D+6 but he was outright wrong for expecting 2008 turnout like all others in the MSM. He never would have predicted D+7 if he thought that Obama would get 10 million less votes.
What do you think, good explanation?