Dr. Pepper-
Bingo!
I’m not even going to verify your answer, since you’re the one who showed me the method of calculating odds in the “cards” puzzle a while back.
Here’s a variation I gave the kids at the Shabbos table:
To win a prize, I will either pick two out of five numbers, or four out of five numbers. You must then correctly guess the numbers I picked. Most people choose the two out of five option, because the choice which is correct (4 out of 5) is counter-intuitive.