1) The high birth rate of religious families
In general Israel has the highest birthrate among developed countries – yes, the ultra Orthodox element is a part of it, but Secular Israelis have a higher than average birthrate too. A 2013 study by Yaakov Feitelson actually indicated that Ultra Orthodox Birthrates are falling and have been doing so for a decade as of 2013, though still significantly higher than the growing non chareidi birthrate which continues to climb and is just about as high now as the declining Arab birthrate in Israel. So religious, yes. Secular too, and Chareidi, not as much or as fast as you might think.
A few issues of concern, though. The ICBS indicates that the proportion of the population over 65 will rise from 10% now to 17% by 2059. How will a growing chareidi population with a significant proportion who do not work and thus pay proportionate income tax, sustain this almost doubled proportion of senior citizens, when it is challenging to do so under present circumstances?
2) The “transfer” of secular to religious Jews –
The vast majority of the thousands of annual yordim are secular
and the vast majority of olim are religious.
Not so fast, though. 48% of those who left post 1990 have been people who made aliyah. Even factoring in people from the FSU, if as you say there are large numbers of frum immigrants, the numbers who went back are significant too, at least statistically. if you want to argue anecdotally, I can’t disagree, but your argument can’t be backed up, either.
Indeed, at least a plurality if not a majority of those immigrating – from the West – are religious, but a very large proportion of these are Religious Zionist and Modern Orthodox, and a smaller proportion are Chareidi. Not only that, but the last two years recorded, 2014 and 2015, have seen 30% to 40% of total immigration coming from Ukraine and the FSU, and the proportion of Frum from there is close to nil.
More importantly, put in a bigger picture, the numbers are less significant. in fact, total population growth has been in decline (though it is still stronger than any other developed country) for decades, with the exception of Soviet Jewish immigration in the 90’s)
1960 2,150,400 +57.0%
1970 3,022,100 +40.5%
1980 3,921,700 +29.8%
1990 4,821,700 +22.9%
2000 6,369,300 +32.1%
2010 7,695,100 +20.8%
2015 8,463,500 +10.0%
(all from Israel Central Bureau of Statistics)
3) The Baalei Tshuva movement- tens of thousands become frum every year
Though it doesn’t reflect the totality of the situation in Israel, the Pew report released in late 2013 indicated that part of the reason the Orthodox proportion of the population stayed static at 10% was the fact that while 150,000 Jews had become baalei teshuva within the time period studied, 330,000 raised Orthodox had left. Even if this is only partially reflective of the Israeli reality, the tens of thousands who come back are mostly balanced if not overbalanced by those who leave.
This is a statistic we have to pay attention to and understand if we are going to retain our children as well as bringing back those who were never frum.
4) The “slow death” of liberalism- Israelis are getting tired of making concessions to the arabs and are becoming increasingly right-wing which in turn makes them less secular
In fact the growth of the centre right, like Yesh Atid and Kulanu, as well as the continuing popularity of secular right wing parties like Yisrael Beiteinu and Likud, were reflected in the recent election. The chareidi parties were static, as was Shas, and Habayit Hayehudi got less than expected. It is far more surprising to listen to the pronouncements of Machane Hatzioni, so when Bougie Herzog says there is no current peace partner, and negotiates entry into Bibi’s coalition, it indicates that Israeli society as a whole, secular and religious, has become more right wing, with no reference to religion but much to security.
So, Rabbi of Crawley, I think the power of the religious is rising, but incrementally so. It may have more to do with the Religious Zionists than anyone else, who now make up a plurality of candidates in officer training in the IDF, who are building companies and employing more Israelis, who have a high birthrate and who engage with their secular brothers and ssiters every day. They have their problems too. So, frankly, does every element of society. (and not just in Israel)
After the primary and overwhelming consideration of ratzon hashem and emunah, Its what all Israelis and all Jews can do together that is going to keep us strong.