Reply To: Can you guess the outcome of this true story?

Google it. […] Golden Balls.

Why would you post the source?

Also, why would he ask the question if it’s obvious?

[…]

Mainly, I choose C because the answer is supposed to be surprising.

I didn’t say the answer was surprising. Considering the subject

matter, wouldn’t it be wise not to make any assumptions? 🙂

[E]ven if he is worried that guy2 will do take after all,

there still is no point in his doing take. If they both do take,

no one gets the money, so he may as well do split.

Therefore, the logical assumption is that guy1 will do split. If guy2 figured that out, he would do take, so he can get everything.

People who are less generous than you see a point in preventing the

other person from getting money when they don’t get any themselves.

The question a player must ask himself is “How likely is the other person

not to do what they say they will – what will they gain by not doing so?”

In this case, all Player 1 could gain by not doing what he said he would

(by splitting) was giving Player 2 all the money. Why would he do that?

It’s more believable that Player 1 would leave the decision to Player 2,

who could either Take for a mutual loss or Split for a possible gain.

The only reason for someone to be so adamant

about what he is going to do is to guarantee himself the

money by having both choose Split.

Except that there’s no guarantee that that will happen –

it would be relying on a bluff. Also, what I said above.