Can you guess the outcome of this true story?

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• #618192

On a certain TV game show, the final stage of the competition would see 2 people facing off, with a large sum of money hanging in the balance. The contestants would have to simultaneously choose and reveal whether they wanted to split the money or take all of it for themselves. If both chose to split the money, they would each receive half of it, and if both chose to take it for themselves, neither would receive anything, but if one chose to split and one to take, the taker would receive all of the money and the splitter, nothing.

The contestants were given the opportunity to negotiate first,

which usually took the form of both parties attempting to convince the other that they would choose to split.

(The most common result was actually one choosing to split and one to take, with people who seemed nice enough often being the takers. Researchers said this was because people’s desire not to look foolish by being taken advantage of overrode their desire to be generous.)

One evening, with 13,600 British pounds on the table, a contestant shocked the audience by opening his negotiations

with the other player by declaring that he was going to be

completely honest with him… and that he was going to take.

He told the other player that should he choose split, thus giving

him the money, he would give him half of the money once the show

was over. The host made it clear, however, that Player 1 was not legally bound by this agreement. Player 2 was not happy with this, but 45 minutes of attempting to negotiate with Player 1 were of no use. He stuck to his position and would not hear of doing anything else. Finally, the host told the contestants that they had to make a final decision, and so they did. What do you

think happened? Choose one of the answers below, and we’ll see

how many of you guess correctly. (There will be no prizes.)

A. Both contestants chose Take (leaving them with nothing).

B. Both contestants chose Split (and both received half).

C. Player 1 chose Split and Player 2 chose Take (giving 2 the money).

D. Player 1 chose Take (as he had claimed) and Player 2 chose Split.

Player 1 was as good as his word and gave Player 2 half the money.

E. Player 1 chose Take (as he had claimed) and Player 2 chose Split.

Player 1 did not share the money with Player 2.

Bonus question – How many responses should

I wait for before revealing what happened?

#1174833
Joseph
Participant

Why would it be a chiddush whatever happened to be the outcome? It could have been any outcome, and whatever it happened to be was random to those particular players.

#1174834
Sparkly
Member

Comlink-X – lets not discuss the TV.

#1174835
Lilmod Ulelamaid
Participant

It’s definitely not A or C.

I would guess either D or B.

#1174836
Meno
Participant

Let’s pretend it was a radio show

#1174837

I don’t chop

#1174838
Lilmod Ulelamaid
Participant

Pshhh..Sparkly.. didn’t know you were so shtark!

#1174839
Meno
Participant

I agree with Joseph.

It would be much more interesting if it were just a hypothetical story, and the question was “What should Player 2 do?” or something like that.

Right now it’s just a guessing game.

#1174840
Lilmod Ulelamaid
Participant

bump

#1174841
apushatayid
Participant

Google it. Is one of the most pooular episodes of the show golden balls. The strategy employed by player one manipulating player 2 to make specific choice which in turn guaranteed player 1 at least a split has been written on by many.

#1174842

I ended up watching it……wow just plain wow…I dont quite understand whyyy

#1174843
Sam2
Participant

It’s obviously B. The only reason for someone to be so adamant about what he is going to do is to guarantee himself the money by having both choose Split. Now, I guess that the other guy could have known this and chosen Take, but it’s not worth the risk. So they both took Split and split the money.

#1174844
Lilmod Ulelamaid
Participant

Actually, I guess C

#1174845
Lilmod Ulelamaid
Participant

Sam2 – I was thinking along those lines too, but it seemed too obvious, and after Happygirlygirl’s comment, I figured the answer must not be something obvious. Also, why would he ask the question if it’s obvious?

But, then again, just because it’s obvious to me, doesn’t mean it is to others, so you could be right.

I was thinking that maybe, like you said, the other guy figured out that the first guy was clearly planning to do split. If guy1 thought that he convinced guy2 to do split, there’s no reason for him to do take and split the money- if he’s going to split the money anyhow and he “knows” that guy2 is doing split, he may as well just do split, and even if he is worried that guy2 will do take after all, there still is no point in his doing take. If they both do take, no one gets the money, so he may as well do split. Therefore, the logical assumption is that guy1 will do split. If guy2 figured that out, he would do take, so he can get everything.

Mainly, I choose C because the answer is supposed to be surprising.

#1174846

Google it. […] Golden Balls.

Why would you post the source?

Also, why would he ask the question if it’s obvious?

[…]

Mainly, I choose C because the answer is supposed to be surprising.

I didn’t say the answer was surprising. Considering the subject

matter, wouldn’t it be wise not to make any assumptions? 🙂

[E]ven if he is worried that guy2 will do take after all,

there still is no point in his doing take. If they both do take,

no one gets the money, so he may as well do split.

Therefore, the logical assumption is that guy1 will do split. If guy2 figured that out, he would do take, so he can get everything.

People who are less generous than you see a point in preventing the

other person from getting money when they don’t get any themselves.

The question a player must ask himself is “How likely is the other person

not to do what they say they will – what will they gain by not doing so?”

In this case, all Player 1 could gain by not doing what he said he would

(by splitting) was giving Player 2 all the money. Why would he do that?

It’s more believable that Player 1 would leave the decision to Player 2,

who could either Take for a mutual loss or Split for a possible gain.

The only reason for someone to be so adamant

about what he is going to do is to guarantee himself the

money by having both choose Split.

Except that there’s no guarantee that that will happen –

it would be relying on a bluff. Also, what I said above.

#1174847

What actually happened was… B.

Both contestants chose Split (and both received half).

In an interview years later, Player 2 said he would never

have done anything but Take if not for Player 1’s tactic.

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