Reply To: Why not Johnson-Weld (Libertarian candidates for President)

Polls suggest Johnson is able to make it a three-way race in several states in his home region. Remember that if it becomes a Clinton-Johnson race in any state, many “Anybody but Hilary” voters will switch from Trump to Johnson.

If Johnson some electoral votes, the next question is whether Hilary (the front runner) will get the 270 electoral votes to win. But Hilary’s unpopularity suggests that might be a problem unless Trump’s campaign totally collapses. But if Hilary can’t get the 270, it goes to the House. However Trump is running strong in the south and the rust belt but Johnson might pick up some votes in the west/mountain region. It’s a zero sum game, either Hilary gets 270 or she doesn’t and it goes to the House. In that case, even “wasted” votes for third parties matter since someone with 38% of the popular vote isn’t able to claim “I have a mandate” whereas someone with 51% could.

In the House, they vote by state (i.e. New York gets one vote, so does Montana). State’s whose congressional delegations are evenly divided will abstain. If neither Trump not Clinton can get 26 states, it deadlocks. And Johnson is the likely compromise candidate.