I say-
a. The CR has been here, done this, countless times.
b. You’re trying to introduce logic and statistics into a subject that is above and beyond that kind of mathematical thinking.
Israel, the place and the nation, exist on a plane that is lema’alah mi’derech ha’teva.
*disclaimer-
I realize my words can be misunderstood.
We all know who “Israel the nation” refers to (I think).
When I say “Israel the place” I’m referring to Eretz Yisrael, as in “Elokei Hashamayim ve’Elokei Ha’aretz”. Not to the modern political entity.