“If the market was even, then boys wouldn’t have long lists of girls to reject & grow older.”
I’ not sure why you have that mistaken assumption.
If there are 100 boys and 100 girls.
The way our dating is set up the shadchan callls with girls names.
He starts collecting them (since he isnt dating yet, everybody has a list, he needs time to research etc etc)
Now all 100 boys have lists with 100 girls and they start doing heir research. there are an equal number of boys and girls yet many lists
So far there is no crises. The existence of lists has nothing to do with any Age gap TM and certianly nothing to do with girls over 25.
As soon as a young man starts “the parsha” wihin days (often even before he starts) he already has his list. PArtly due to the rigidity of the above system.
You correctly point out “Meanwhile, the average excellent girls sit waiting for a date”
Exactly right, The holdup is occuring between step 3-4 above. The boys have ists and the girls are waiting and davening to be chosen for a date.
this however has little (if not nothing) to do with the age gap tm. The age gap explains why girls arent getting married . IF 100 boys try to marry 110 girls 10 will be left without a partner. But as you correctly point out it isnt getting that far.
Dating (unlike marriage) is not done 1:1 guys date more than one girl before they marry. assume our 100 guys go out with an average of 3 girls each before they marry. That is 300 girls that can be dated. That means each of the 110 girsl should have an average of 2.7 guys to go out with. As you correctly point out that is not happening.
The Age gap tm Does not explain why this isnt hapening (though it may be a samll factor, and POSSIBLY) might become a bigger factor if the dating field is made more even.
The real problem is that we have taken the downsides of the chasdish system (the amount of energy/esiek/research etc that goes into getting a couple to just meet !) combined it with the downside of the Modern system (endless dating that may or may not go anywhere) and we wonder why combining the bad parts of all sytems doesnt lead to a good system.
As you correctly end off “I think this basically explains what’s going on.”
you are right! though note it has nothing to do with the Age gap tm. It is as the shadchan you spoke to points out, boys reject girls too much and wont go out.