Joseph, according to what I read the figure in Israel is 20%. Add to that those who become Dati Leumi (there are, in fact, organizations in both Israel and the US that help people who find the Chareidi community too restrictive but do not want to give up Shabbat, kashrut, etc.). Add to that those who stay on the periphery of Chareidi communities but commit various minor crimes.
As for the DL community, it is hard to say as unlike Chareidi schools State Religious schools accept kids from traditional homes (e.g. a formal Shabbat dinner with Kiddush and “hamotzi” followed by TV at night and a soccer game during the day). I have not seen statistics for the US but the book Off the Derech seemed to say that it is much higher than you claim. The main reason seems to be rejection do to minor things, which is much more prevalent in the Chareidi community. I also have not seen percentages for OTDs who return but probably it is much higher for MO/DLs as these communities make an effort to keep these people connected. In fact, many OTDs from settlements continue to live in their communities even after they get married – which means that as their kids get older and start asking questions they might have to come back at least somewhat (an immigrant from Russia once told me that he sent his kids to a State Religious school because of the better discipline and that he and his wife would probably have to start observing so as not to confuse them).
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