Yash Paul’s paper was published in 2006. His predictions proved very wrong. Contrary to his dismissal of the idea that previous eradication efforts had failed because large pockets of unvaccinated children continued to carry the virus, that proved to be exactly the case. By concentrating on Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and the routes migrant workers took to and from those states, polio was completely eradicated from India by 2011.
Yes, the oral vaccine does cause some cases of polio, but far fewer than it prevents, so as long as the wild virus is prevalent it must be used; once it has been completely eradicated from a region it becomes time to switch to a less effective but safer vaccine, which has now been done, just as it has in the US and Europe. Nobody here gets the oral vaccine any more, but if we hadn’t been given it when we were kids polio would still be ravaging us.
And yes, unexplained polio-like illnesses do seem to be on the rise at the moment. They are not polio; they test negative for the polio virus. Once we figure out what they are we will develop vaccines for them too. Meanwhile there is no evidence at all that the polio vaccine has anything to do with them. It’s just wild speculation by irresponsible people.