Joseph and huju,
I will quote Dr Fauci on March 29th on CNNSOTU in which his gives you numbers but tells you to not project with numbers on a moving target.
TAPPER: Well, Dr. Birx said yesterday, as you know, that she doesn’t think any city will be spared from this virus.
How many cases do you think the U.S. will reach? A million cases, 10 million cases? Or are these — we — or do we not even have any idea?
FAUCI: You know, Jake, the honest — to be honest with you, <b>we don’t really have any firm idea.</b>
There are things called models. And when someone creates a model, they put in various assumptions. And the model is only as good and as accurate as your assumptions. <b> And whenever the modelers come in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario.</b>
Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I have never seen a model of the diseases that I have dealt where the worst-case scenario actually came out. <b>They always overshoot.</b>
So, when you use numbers like a million, a million-and-a-half, two million, that almost certainly is off the chart. Now, it’s not impossible, but very, very unlikely.
So, it’s difficult to present.
I mean, looking at what we’re seeing now, <b> I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 cases. But I don’t want to be held to that, because it’s — excuse me — deaths. I mean, we’re going to have millions of cases.
But I — I just don’t think that we really need to make a projection, when it’s such a moving target, that you can so easily be wrong and mislead people. </b>
What we do know, Jake, is that we got a serious problem in New York, we have a serious problem in New Orleans, and we’re going to be developing serious problems in other areas.
So, although people like to model it, let’s just look at the data of what we have, and not worry about these worst-case and best-case scenarios.
This was CNNSOTU
After viewing the Lincoln Project’s ad against Trump , Trump has already failed miserably in protecting the health and lives of the US Citizens. No need to wait until the number reaches 200,000 for democrats or non-trump republicans to use this against him.
From PPA shortages and minimizing the impact of the pandemic to encouraging states to open too early, he has failed .
On the other hand, Trump will gloat over any temporary good news even if he had nothing to do with it.
If the number is 199,999 deaths, Trump will declare victory.