June 18, 2020 10:35 am at 10:35 am #1873986
It looks like the number of US dead from the coronavirus will hit about 200,000 by September, notwithstanding that Trump has been telling us the virus is going away. So let’s help write a response for Trump to read when the DemonCrats (of which I am one) try to make electoral hay on the day in September when US deaths from coronavirus hit that nice round number. Or, if you think the death rate is going down and the virus is going away, write something Trump can read to gloat about how he was right and the stupid medical professionals were wrong. So everyone can participate in this exercise.June 18, 2020 1:25 pm at 1:25 pm #1874052
Anthony Fauci, in *March*, predicted the death rate would be upwards of 240,000. The numbers we’re hearing now are below his estimate.
We’ve done very well, as a nation, to keep it below prediction.
Remember, the Spanish Flu killed something like 750,000 Americans. A bad flu season can kill over 100,000 Americans. The 1957 flu had a very large death rate.
Thank you President Trump, the RBS”O’s shliach.June 18, 2020 2:12 pm at 2:12 pm #1874097
So, Joseph, assuming your facts are correct, why not a song, to the tune of “For he’s a jolly good fellow”:
It’s less than Fauci predicted,
Less than Fauci predicted,
He don’t know nothin’ from nothin’,
And so say all of us.June 18, 2020 3:54 pm at 3:54 pm #1874136jackkParticipant
Joseph and huju,
I will quote Dr Fauci on March 29th on CNNSOTU in which his gives you numbers but tells you to not project with numbers on a moving target.
TAPPER: Well, Dr. Birx said yesterday, as you know, that she doesn’t think any city will be spared from this virus.
How many cases do you think the U.S. will reach? A million cases, 10 million cases? Or are these — we — or do we not even have any idea?
FAUCI: You know, Jake, the honest — to be honest with you, <b>we don’t really have any firm idea.</b>
There are things called models. And when someone creates a model, they put in various assumptions. And the model is only as good and as accurate as your assumptions. <b> And whenever the modelers come in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario.</b>
Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I have never seen a model of the diseases that I have dealt where the worst-case scenario actually came out. <b>They always overshoot.</b>
So, when you use numbers like a million, a million-and-a-half, two million, that almost certainly is off the chart. Now, it’s not impossible, but very, very unlikely.
So, it’s difficult to present.
I mean, looking at what we’re seeing now, <b> I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 cases. But I don’t want to be held to that, because it’s — excuse me — deaths. I mean, we’re going to have millions of cases.
But I — I just don’t think that we really need to make a projection, when it’s such a moving target, that you can so easily be wrong and mislead people. </b>
What we do know, Jake, is that we got a serious problem in New York, we have a serious problem in New Orleans, and we’re going to be developing serious problems in other areas.
So, although people like to model it, let’s just look at the data of what we have, and not worry about these worst-case and best-case scenarios.
This was CNNSOTU
After viewing the Lincoln Project’s ad against Trump , Trump has already failed miserably in protecting the health and lives of the US Citizens. No need to wait until the number reaches 200,000 for democrats or non-trump republicans to use this against him.
From PPA shortages and minimizing the impact of the pandemic to encouraging states to open too early, he has failed .
On the other hand, Trump will gloat over any temporary good news even if he had nothing to do with it.
If the number is 199,999 deaths, Trump will declare victory.June 18, 2020 4:31 pm at 4:31 pm #1874176
Jackk -“From PPA shortages ”
Trump said very early in the pandemic, that when he came into the Office, Obama left the cupboards Bare. Libs are the biggest LIARS.
Tell me how we have an AIDS Epidemic in the US?
Oh I know – when they discovered a few guys with AIDS, I mean it was just a Few, they conveniently forgot the word QUARANTINE!June 18, 2020 4:32 pm at 4:32 pm #1874178
jackk: Fauci’s high end of the number as of March was 240,000; not 200,000.June 18, 2020 4:38 pm at 4:38 pm #1874184Someone in MonseyParticipant
Currently, the average daily death total in the US is approximately 750 (according to worldometers.info). At that rate, in 73 days, which will be Sept. 1, there will be an additional 56,000+ deaths, putting the total at approx. 176,000. At the same rate, by 9/30 there will be 198,000. If the death rate remains steady, the total may, indeed, reach 200,000. It’s far from impossible that we reach that number. While the death rate has obviously slowed, it’s quite clear that this virus is unusual in its persistence. It’s quite possible this thing will linger for an extended period of time. Will the death rate decrease further? Possibly, perhaps even probably, but that’s unknown.
Joseph, some of your numbers are off. The ’57 pandemic killed between 70-116,000 Americans (the ’68 pandemic somewhat less). Also a flu season with 100,000 deaths is not “bad”, it is extremely severe. The 1918 flu killed 675,000 in the US according to CDC.June 18, 2020 6:23 pm at 6:23 pm #1874200
Just a nit on the 1918 flu pandemic: both numbers (750,000 Americans and 675,000 in the U.S.) may be right. Remember, the reason it was so bad and traveled so far is that it was at the end of World War I when American soldiers were in Europe and traveling back home. An American who died in Europe would be an American but wouldn’t be in the U.S. In actuality, as hard as it is to count COVID deaths today, with modern medicine and modern technology, imagine what it was like then. That’s why the numbers are usually given as a rather wide range rather than as a single number.
Speaking of the number of deaths, some on the right claim the number is overstated, often based on the idea that it’s in somebody’s financial interests to claim non-COVID deaths as caused by COVID. People who study morbidity statistics say it’s understated, based on comparing the total number of deaths with prior years.June 18, 2020 6:23 pm at 6:23 pm #1874199jackkParticipant
Obama left the cupboards bare .
3 years later Trump still had empty cupboards. Why don’t the Trump supporters blame that on Trump?
If corona happened on Jan 22, 2016 , the blame of Obama would make sense. 3 years later it is ridiculous.
Fauci said that the numbers are not important. They are projections based on models. They are not nevuah and they are worthless in gauging whether Trump was the successful shaliach of Hashem or a successful shaliach of Hashem’s maloch hamoves.June 18, 2020 6:46 pm at 6:46 pm #1874204
Health, you’re making the assumption that Trump was telling the truth when he said Obama left the cupboards bare. It’s always risky to assume Trump is telling the truth. The truth is more nuanced — you could look it up it you cared. Also, why didn’t Trump replenish the supplies in the three years between his inauguration and the outbreak? Trump seems to be stuck on the first envelope in the three envelopes joke.June 18, 2020 10:33 pm at 10:33 pm #1874244
YY & Jackk -“Also, why didn’t Trump replenish the supplies in the three years between his inauguration”
“Obama left the cupboards bare .
3 years later Trump still had empty cupboards. Why don’t the Trump supporters blame that on Trump?”
Do you really think that Disaster Supplies are kept in WH basement?
When a president gives an order for it to be used, it’s the Adminstration responsibilty to make sure it’s Replaced. It’s a good thing Obama isn’t President anymore – you’d have Millions of Deaths.
You LIBS – Love to Just blame Trump for every little thing?!?June 18, 2020 10:35 pm at 10:35 pm #1874251GadolhadorahParticipant
When asked in a recent Fox interview why he didn’t take steps on January 21, 2017 to replenish the “empty cupboards”, The Trumpkof replied that he was too busy busy keeping out Muslims, writing love letters to North Korean President Kim-Jung-Un and most importantly, spending 133 days during my first 3 years as President playing golf at Trump properties, not to even mention the personal stress from the Russia Hoas.June 18, 2020 10:36 pm at 10:36 pm #1874252
According to the CDC, in the 2017-2018 flu season between 61,000 and 95,000 Americans died. In the 2014-2015 flu season between 51,000 and 64,000 Americans died.
Yet relatively very few people knew that many people died of the flu those years despite those numbers. And those years didn’t have a major epidemic.June 18, 2020 10:36 pm at 10:36 pm #1874256ruvainParticipant
He can say that he had a good response and the dog ate it. After all, he can say anything and then say he never said it, or thats not what he meant, or its fake news. When he tells yall to drink the kool-aid. make sure you get a double. Lachaim.June 18, 2020 11:59 pm at 11:59 pm #1874271
YY -“Health, you’re making the assumption that Trump was telling the truth when he said Obama left the cupboards bare. It’s always risky to assume Trump is telling the truth. ”
Actually the Libs don’t know the Meaning of the Truth!
“Former President Barack Obama’s administration was to blame for the shortage of protective equipment like N95 respirator masks in the early months of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.”
“The U.S. federal stockpile of N95 protective face masks was largely depleted during the 2009 swine flu outbreak and was not restocked”June 19, 2020 8:13 am at 8:13 am #1874282
This is too easy. How about the rest of the Snopes article?
However, the Obama administration was not solely responsible for the current shortage of masks. In the intervening years, the stockpile went unreplenished as the Trump administration failed to heed indications that dramatic shortages could occur.June 19, 2020 8:14 am at 8:14 am #1874283
“Every little thing?”
120,000 dead, projected to be over 200,000 by October 1.
Highest unemployment since the Great Depression.
A draft dodger who dares to denigrate heroes like McCain and Vindman.
Dictators like Putin, Xi, Erdogan, and Kim Jong Un play our President like a fiddle.
A president who hires “the best people” and calls them losers and fools when they leave his employ and reveal his ignorance, incompetence, and criminality.June 19, 2020 9:43 am at 9:43 am #1874333
I haven’t been following the entire conversation, but Snopes is more often false, incorrect and/or biased than Snopes being accurate.June 19, 2020 9:43 am at 9:43 am #1874343
To Someone in the Money: Please keep in mind that the current death rate is expected in increase as more regions in the US loosen their requirments for social distancing, masks, and the opening up of retail commerce. I suspect that the projections of 200,000 deaths by September are based on an increasing death rate.June 19, 2020 9:55 am at 9:55 am #1874357
If the final number is in the ballpark of 240,000, it will be within Anthony Fauci’s March estimate. If it is below that range, the country did better than expected.
This isn’t the first epidemic in American history.June 19, 2020 12:00 pm at 12:00 pm #1874417
Huju is correct about the death rate increasing. The IHME projections have been right on the money. When they were projecting through August 4, the curve’s slope was decreasing. Now that they’re projecting through October 1, the slope starts to increase starting July 27. They have it back over 1000 daily deaths by September 14 and over 1400 by October 1. Of course, it’s not going to drop to 0 on October 2, so when they project 200,000 deaths by October 1, that could bring us over 240,000 by Election Day, even if the number of daily deaths plateaus after October 1. Trump should be pushing for early voting.
Joseph, can you find a source for your claim that Fauci said the death toll would be “upwards of 240,000?” I’m seeing him saying it would be in range of 100K to 240K. As we see above, he said, “Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle.”June 19, 2020 12:15 pm at 12:15 pm #1874437
Come on folks: let’s have some snappy remarks, not some boring discussion of this or that detail in a model that Dr. Fauci may or may not have used.
And for you folks who think COVID-19 is like the flu: I have had the flu dozens of times, and I never felt close to death. But COVID, given my risk factors, will probably put me close to death, even if it does not put me on the wrong side of death.June 19, 2020 4:25 pm at 4:25 pm #1874525n0mesorahParticipant
Why is it about worst case numbers? There was a chance to avoid the good bulk of it. The U. S. is the hardest hit country. With resources that are still being kept idle. There is no way to sugarcoat it. Huju wants to make light of it. But humor is insulting to some attempts to continue denying reality.June 19, 2020 8:10 pm at 8:10 pm #1874560☕️coffee addictParticipant
“And for you folks who think COVID-19 is like the flu: I have had the flu dozens of times, and I never felt close to death.“
Are you an anti vaxxer?June 21, 2020 10:53 am at 10:53 am #1874698
YY -“How about the rest of the Snopes article?”
OH – I Read that Part, but it wasn’t Revelant.
“YY -“Health, you’re making the assumption that Trump was telling the truth when he said Obama left the cupboards bare. It’s always risky to assume Trump is telling the truth. ”
I was Proving that he Was telling the Truth. Now why would You assume He wasn’t?!?
Unless you always Believe the Lying Demoncrats?!?June 21, 2020 12:09 pm at 12:09 pm #1874792
I’m not sure what Revelant means. Health seems to be emulating his hero by capitalizing random words.June 21, 2020 1:30 pm at 1:30 pm #1874833
YY – “Health seems to be emulating his hero by capitalizing random words.”
Another False assumption! I like what he’s doing.
Is Obama your Hero, because you’re obviously a Democrat?June 21, 2020 3:11 pm at 3:11 pm #1874891
So why do you capitalize random words?
BTW, I’m a DINO — only registered as a Democrat because where I live, the Democrat is guaranteed to win. To have any voice, I have to vote in the Democratic primary, and our primaries are closed. If we had open primaries, I’d register as an independent. I’ve voted for presidential candidates of both parties. In 2016, I did a write-in because I didn’t want to vote for either of the major party candidates.June 21, 2020 6:11 pm at 6:11 pm #1874913
YY -“So why do you capitalize random words?”
Don’t ask me questions, until you answer Mine.
Here it is again:
“Is Obama your Hero, because you’re obviously a Democrat?”June 22, 2020 6:24 pm at 6:24 pm #1875230
I thought you were smart enough to figure that one out, but I guess I was wrong. Obama is not my hero. Now it’s your turn to answer why you capitalize random words.June 22, 2020 7:23 pm at 7:23 pm #1875346HistorianParticipant
What exactly “should” Trump say about the virus and how will help?June 23, 2020 12:24 am at 12:24 am #1875408
YY -“Now it’s your turn to answer why you capitalize random words.”
I’m so sorry that it upsets you! LOL.
To emphasize those Words or letters.June 23, 2020 10:50 am at 10:50 am #1875540👑RebYidd23Participant
A protest vote is the only vote that counts. Any other vote is an own goal.June 23, 2020 10:52 am at 10:52 am #1875543
That’s what Trump says, IIRC. It’s not normative English.June 25, 2020 12:56 pm at 12:56 pm #1876524👑RebYidd23Participant
Health, this is America. Write in English. (T)June 25, 2020 1:41 pm at 1:41 pm #1876561
Yidd23 -“Health, this is America. Write in English.”
Number 1: It’s NOT Called “America”. It’s either US or USA.
Number 2: There is NO official Language in the US. Not like other Countries.
When the pop. here becomes Mostly Hispanic – they Probably will have an official Language – Spanish!
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